De Graafschap vs NAC Breda: Nine Conceded at Home
Updated
De Graafschap host NAC Breda in the Eerste Divisie on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Stadion De Vijverberg in Doetinchem, seeking their first home points after conceding nine goals in two matches at their own ground.
De Graafschap have conceded 18 goals in six league games
De Graafschap enter the weekend in 19th position with four points from six matches and a goal difference of -11. Defensive fragility has been constant at Stadion De Vijverberg, where they opened with a 2-5 defeat against Jong AZ on 17 August and followed with a 1-4 loss to Almere City FC on 29 August. Across their last five matches with chance data, they have generated 0.89 expected goals per game while allowing 1.88.
They did secure their first victory of the campaign on 11 September, beating Emmen 2-1 away. Top scorer Julian Kania scored in that match to take his tally to three goals this season in all competitions, but the side had previously suffered a 0-5 away defeat at Heracles on 4 September.
Paul Gladon leads a high-scoring NAC Breda attack
NAC Breda sit 15th in the table with seven points from six games, having scored 11 goals and conceded 14. Striker Paul Gladon leads their scoring charts with four goals in all competitions. The underlying attacking numbers are strong: NAC Breda create an average of 1.56 expected goals per game while allowing 1.28.
Their away record shows one win, one draw, and one defeat from three outings, with six goals scored and seven conceded. That run includes a 2-2 draw at Roda on 28 August and a 2-4 defeat at Waalwijk on 4 September. They arrive in Doetinchem following a 2-3 home loss against Jong Utrecht on 11 September.
Our model expects a NAC Breda win
Our model expects a NAC Breda win. The projection is supported by the sustained difference in chance creation, where NAC Breda average 1.56 expected goals per game against De Graafschap's 0.89. De Graafschap's return of zero points and nine goals conceded across two home fixtures underlines the defensive problems that our model expects the visitors to exploit.
