NAC Breda vs FC Eindhoven

NAC Breda face FC Eindhoven in Eerste Divisie action on Saturday 26 September 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda, with both sides entering the weekend level on 10 points from seven matches.

Paul Gladon spearheads high-chance Breda attack

NAC Breda returned to winning ways on 20 September 2026 with a 2-1 victory away at De Graafschap. That result took their league tally to 10 points, sitting 11th in the table with 13 goals scored and 15 conceded across seven fixtures. Striker Paul Gladon leads their scoring charts with four goals in all competitions this season.

Underlying metrics highlight an expansive approach for the home side. Over their last five games with recorded metrics, NAC Breda have created an average of 2.05 expected goals while conceding 1.70. At Rat Verlegh Stadion, however, NAC Breda have collected only one win and two defeats from three league outings, conceding seven goals while scoring five.

FC Eindhoven unbeaten in three but leak chances

FC Eindhoven arrive in 12th place, matching the hosts on 10 points and a minus-two goal difference. They enter this trip on a three-match unbeaten run, having drawn 0-0 away at Jong Utrecht on 7 September 2026 before earning back-to-back home victories against Dordrecht (2-1 on 11 September) and Emmen (3-1 on 18 September). Top scorer Kevin Van Veen has two goals in all competitions.

Despite positive recent outcomes, FC Eindhoven's chance numbers show heavy defensive strain. Over their last four matches with performance data, they have generated just 0.98 expected goals per game while surrendering 2.05 expected goals to opponents. On their travels in the Eerste Divisie, they hold one win, one draw, and one defeat, scoring three times and conceding five.

In recent head-to-head meetings, FC Eindhoven took four points across two fixtures in the 2023-24 season, winning 2-0 at home in August 2023 and earning a 2-2 draw at Rat Verlegh Stadion in February 2024.

Our model firmly expects a NAC Breda win

Our forecasting model firmly expects a NAC Breda win. While FC Eindhoven carry a three-game unbeaten sequence into the match, the disparity in chance generation separates the sides. NAC Breda generate more than double the expected goals per match compared to FC Eindhoven, while Eindhoven have conceded an average of 2.05 expected goals across their recent sample.