Excelsior vs Groningen

Excelsior meet Groningen in the Eredivisie on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Stadion Woudestein in Rotterdam, with both clubs level on 11 points in the table.

Groningen travel with seven injured players

Groningen visit Rotterdam without seven squad members due to injury: Elvis van der Laan, Malcolm Jeng, Nikolas Brandis, Ryan Metu, Travis Hernes, Tyrique Mercera, and Wouter Prins. That depleted squad must protect a defence that has allowed 2.32 expected goals per game over its last five matches. Groningen sit eighth in the Eredivisie table with 15 goals scored and 13 conceded across seven matches, holding an away record of one win, one draw, and one defeat from three outings. Despite conceding chances, Groningen enter on a three-match unbeaten run, defeating PEC Zwolle 3-0 on 18 September after a 1-1 draw at Go Ahead Eagles on 12 September and a 2-2 draw with Twente on 6 September.

Excelsior push forward behind David Garden

Excelsior sit seventh in the table with a goal difference of +6, having scored 15 goals and conceded nine in their first seven fixtures. Leading the home attack is David Garden, who has scored three goals in all competitions this season. Excelsior enter following a 2-2 draw away at Ajax on 19 September, which followed a 1-2 home loss to Utrecht on 13 September and a 2-2 draw at NEC Nijmegen on 8 September. At Stadion Woudestein, Excelsior have recorded one win and two defeats from three league matches, conceding five goals and scoring four. Their chance metrics show 1.20 expected goals created per game against 1.45 allowed across their last five fixtures. Midfielder Noah Naujoks is out with an injury.

Our model leans narrowly towards a Groningen win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Groningen win. Groningen enter having scored 15 league goals this season, matching Excelsior's total, led by Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson with four goals in all competitions. Groningen also won 2-0 on their previous visit to Stadion Woudestein on 5 December 2025, although Excelsior won the reverse fixture 3-2 on 2 May 2026. While Groningen's concession of 2.32 expected goals per game and seven injury absences pose real difficulties, Excelsior's two home losses in three matches keep the margin narrow.