Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain: Four Losses in a Row
Updated
Marseille host Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at the Stade Orange Vélodrome, with the home side entering on a run of four consecutive defeats in all competitions.
Marseille endure four straight defeats
Marseille sit 15th in Ligue 1 with three points from four games after conceding six goals and scoring six. Their recent form has deteriorated across competitions, falling 1-4 away at Beşiktaş in the UEFA Europa League on 17 September 2026, 0-1 at Rennes on 11 September, 2-3 at home to Paris FC on 6 September, and 0-2 at Monaco on 30 August. Their lone league win came in a 4-0 home victory against Strasbourg on 21 August.
Absences in defence and midfield have added to their difficulty. G. Kondogbia is ruled out with an injury, while D. Cornelius and T. Nnadi are doubtful. Amine Gouiri leads the Marseille attack with four goals in all competitions this season, but the side allows 1.76 expected goals per match while creating 1.30 over their last five games with chance data.
Ferran Torres leads Paris Saint Germain attack
Paris Saint Germain enter 10th in the table on five points from four league matches, but they remain unbeaten away in Ligue 1 with one win and two draws, scoring five goals and conceding four. They earned a 1-0 win away at Stade Brestois 29 on 13 September 2026 courtesy of Ferran Torres, who has scored six goals in all competitions this season. That result followed a 6-1 home victory over Slovan Bratislava in the UEFA Champions League on 9 September.
The visitors are without A. Hakimi due to a thigh injury sustained against Brest, while I. Zabarnyi and S. Mayulu remain doubtful. Despite those absences, Paris Saint Germain have averaged 2.31 expected goals created and only 0.95 allowed across their last five matches with chance data.
Our model firmly expects a Paris Saint Germain win
Our forecasting model firmly expects a Paris Saint Germain win in Marseille. The assessment aligns with a wide difference in underlying chance quality, with Paris Saint Germain generating 2.31 expected goals per match compared to Marseille's 1.30 created and 1.76 allowed. While Marseille claimed a 1-0 victory in this fixture on 22 September 2025, Paris Saint Germain won the most recent meeting 5-0 on 8 February 2026, and the home side must overcome a four-match losing sequence without G. Kondogbia.
