Ligue 1 Matchweek 5 concluded with Paris Saint Germain earning a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Marseille, capping off a weekend where our forecasting model posted a solid showing across France, landing six of the nine match result calls.
How our forecasts did
The half-time and full-time calls struggled most across the round, with only three of nine projections proving accurate. Exact scorelines were also difficult to pin down, though two of the nine calls hit their mark exactly—Monaco's 2-1 victory over Lens and Paris Saint Germain's 2-1 win at Marseille. Elsewhere, the projections held up well. Both the win or draw topic and the total goals calls returned seven correct out of nine, matched by both teams to score, which also landed seven of nine. In the match result column, six of the nine calls were correct, alongside six of nine successful first team to score projections.
Results
Friday 18 September
Monaco kicked off the weekend with a 2-1 victory over Lens. Lens brought the division's highest expected goals average into the match, but Monaco held firm despite missing Ansu Fati, leading at the break and seeing out a match where our model correctly projected the result, both teams to score, over 2.5 goals, and the exact 2-1 scoreline.
Saturday 19 September
Paris FC edged Strasbourg 2-1, maintaining their early form. Strasbourg arrived having scored nine and conceded eight in their opening four matches, and that defensive vulnerability showed again as Paris FC scored first and led at the interval, validating our calls for a home win and both teams to score.
Angers collected their first home win of the season, beating Estac Troyes 2-0. Our model backed Angers to win and projected a decisive outcome either way, both of which landed, though Troyes failed to score, which meant both teams to score and the over 2.5 total goals calls fell short.
Le Mans recorded their first victory back in the top flight, beating Lorient 2-1. Our model had projected a low-scoring draw based on Lorient's clean defensive record on the road, so the result went against the model, though calls for both teams to score and over 2.5 total goals both came in.
Lyon produced an emphatic display, sweeping aside Rennes 4-0. Lyon opened the scoring and comfortably cleared the high-confidence call for over 2.5 goals as well as the home win, though Rennes failed to score despite entering the match as one of the league's top early attacking teams.
Toulouse picked up their first win of the campaign in an entertaining 3-2 victory over Le Havre. Toulouse had not scored at home prior to kickoff, leading the model to forecast fewer than 2.5 goals, but both attacks broke out in a five-goal match that still yielded a correct home win call.
Sunday 20 September
Auxerre halted a run of three consecutive defeats by upsetting Stade Brestois 2-1. Brest scored the opening goal as projected, but Auxerre overturned the deficit, meaning our call for an away win missed, even as calls for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score landed.
Nice secured their first win of the season, beating Lille 2-1. Nice had managed just a single goal across their first four matches, prompting the model to back in-form Lille to take the points. Lille opened the scoring as expected, but Nice responded with two goals to produce the round's biggest surprise result.
Paris Saint Germain closed the round with a 2-1 away win against Marseille. Even with Achraf Hakimi sidelined, the visitors struck first and held off a Marseille side featuring league top scorer Amine Gouiri, landing our high-confidence calls for an away win, over 2.5 goals, and the exact 2-1 score.
What we got wrong
The clearest miss of the round came at Nice. Lille arrived without a goal conceded away from home and carrying three consecutive clean sheets, while Nice sat at the foot of the table with one goal in four games. The model firmly expected Lille to control the contest and take the win. While Lille did find the opening goal, Nice overturned their miserable early attacking numbers to score twice and take all three points.
The model was also caught out by Auxerre. Brest brought an unbeaten away record and an average of 2.0 expected goals on their travels against an Auxerre defence that had conceded eleven times in three straight losses. Brest did strike first, but they failed to manage the game, allowing Auxerre back into the contest and overturning our away win projection.
Round summary
Matchweek 5 provided separation at both ends of the table. Paris Saint Germain maintained their domestic authority with a victory at Marseille, while previously winless sides Nice, Le Mans, and Toulouse all secured their first league victories of the season to reshape the bottom half.
