Aston Villa vs Brentford

Aston Villa host Brentford in the Premier League on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Villa Park in Birmingham, having lost both of their opening home league fixtures this season.

Villa struggle at home while Brentford sit fourth

A contrast in early league form separates the two teams after five rounds. Brentford arrive in fourth place with nine points and a positive goal difference of six, having scored ten goals and conceded four. They produced a 3-0 home win over Chelsea on 18 September and drew their two away league games, 2-2 at Bournemouth on 12 September and 1-1 at Leeds on 30 August.

Aston Villa sit 16th with four points from five matches. At Villa Park, they have suffered two defeats from two league games, scoring one goal and conceding three, including a 2-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest on 12 September. Away from home, Villa earned a 3-2 victory at Tottenham on 19 September, but their domestic record at Villa Park leaves them chasing their first home point of the campaign.

Brentford hold a three-match head-to-head run

Recent meetings between the sides favour the visitors. Brentford took a 1-0 win at Villa Park on 1 February 2026, following a 1-1 draw on 16 September 2025 and a 1-0 victory on 23 August 2025. That three-game unbeaten sequence gives the visitors the upper hand in recent history, while Villa's last league victory over Brentford came in a 3-1 win on 4 December 2024.

Both sides generate chances at a similar rate. Aston Villa have averaged 1.96 expected goals created and 1.19 allowed over their last five matches with data, led in scoring by Emiliano Buendía with two goals. Brentford have created 1.88 expected goals and allowed 1.53 per game, with Kevin Schade leading their attack on three goals in all competitions.

Injury lists test depth on both sides

Absences could alter both lineups. Aston Villa are without Amadou Onana, Ian Maatsen, and Modou Kéba Cissé through injury. Leon Goretzka, Marco Bizot, Matty Cash, and Pau Torres are listed as doubtful. Brentford travel without Antoni Milambo and Joshua Dasilva, while Dango Ouattara, Mathias Jensen, Mikkel Damsgaard, Nathan Collins, and Sepp van den Berg are carrying injuries and remain doubtful.

Our model leans narrowly towards a Brentford win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Brentford win. The call reflects Brentford's unbeaten start away from home, their place in fourth in the table, and a three-game unbeaten sequence against Aston Villa, countered by Villa's productive 1.96 expected goals average.