Union St. Gilloise vs OH Leuven

Union St. Gilloise face OH Leuven in the Jupiler Pro League on Sunday, 11 October 2026, at Stade Joseph Mariën in Brussels, entering the game on a five-match winning streak across all competitions.

Union St. Gilloise have conceded zero home league goals

The home side sit second in the Jupiler Pro League table with 19 points from seven fixtures, scoring 21 times and conceding only three. At Stade Joseph Mariën, they have two wins and one draw from three league games, scoring eight goals without conceding once. Their broader form shows five consecutive victories across all competitions, most recently beating Antwerp 2-0 away on 20 September 2026, Plzen 3-0 on 17 September 2026, and Lommel United 5-0 on 12 September 2026. Over their last five games with chance data, Union St. Gilloise have averaged 2.99 expected goals created and 1.02 allowed per game. Top scorer Raul Florucz leads the attack with four goals this season, though defenders Kevin Mac Allister and Ross Sykes remain unavailable through injury.

OH Leuven have lost all three away league matches

OH Leuven sit 14th in the table with four points from seven games and a goal difference of minus eight. While they won 2-0 at home against RAAL La Louvière on 19 September 2026 and drew 1-1 with Cercle Brugge on 12 September 2026, their record away from home is poor. The club has zero wins and three defeats from three away matches in the competition, scoring one goal and conceding seven. That includes a 3-0 loss at SK Beveren on 6 September 2026 and a 1-0 loss at Gent on 3 September 2026. Across their last five matches with data, OH Leuven have generated 1.05 expected goals per match while conceding 1.33. Top scorer Wouter George holds two goals in all competitions, but the squad travels without injured trio Manuel Osifo, Thibaud Verlinden, and Thibault Vlietinck.

Unbeaten in five against OH Leuven

Union St. Gilloise have held the upper hand in recent head-to-head meetings, remaining unbeaten across their last five encounters. The most recent clash ended in a 0-0 draw at OH Leuven on 24 January 2026, following a 5-0 win for Union St. Gilloise on 3 August 2025 and a 1-0 victory on 19 January 2025. In total, OH Leuven have managed to score in only one of those five games, a 1-1 draw on 24 November 2024.

Our model firmly expects an Union St. Gilloise win

Our model firmly expects an Union St. Gilloise win. This projection aligns with the stark contrast in output between the two sides: Union St. Gilloise create nearly three expected goals per game and have yet to concede at Stade Joseph Mariën in league play, whereas OH Leuven arrive having lost every away league fixture this season.