KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden

KV Mechelen host St. Truiden in the Jupiler Pro League on Sunday, 11 October 2026 at Achter de Kazerne in Mechelen, sitting bottom of the division and carrying eight confirmed injuries.

St. Truiden hold four straight head-to-head wins

St. Truiden have taken full points from the last four meetings between these two clubs. Their most recent clash on 24 May 2026 ended in a 3-0 home win for St. Truiden, following a 4-1 victory at Achter de Kazerne on 26 April 2026. Prior to that, St. Truiden earned a 1-0 win on 21 December 2025 and a 3-1 away victory on 4 October 2025. The last time KV Mechelen took anything from this fixture was a 1-1 draw on 21 February 2025.

St. Truiden arrive 12th in the standings with eight points from seven games and a balanced goal difference of zero, scoring 12 and conceding 12. Although they suffered back-to-back 2-0 defeats against SK Beveren on 12 September and KVC Westerlo on 20 September, they have shown high attacking output in spurts, including a 4-0 win against RAAL La Louvière on 5 September and a 4-1 away win at Antwerp on 30 August. Samed Baždar leads their attack with four goals in all competitions, supported by a chance creation rate averaging 1.97 expected goals per game over their last five outings.

Eight injuries hit bottom-placed Mechelen

KV Mechelen are 18th in the 18-team table with three points from seven games and a goal difference of -9. They have scored five goals and conceded 14 across the campaign, failing to win any of their three home league fixtures to date, with one draw and two defeats while being outscored eight goals to three.

Their squad is heavily depleted. Eight players are ruled out through injury: Adeshina Ayodele, Dikeni Salifou, Gora Diouf, Ian Struyf, Keano Vanrafelghem, Leo Hjelde, Tijn Van Ingelgom, and Tommy St. Jago. Without them, the home side has found goals hard to come by, failing to score in three of their last five matches, including a 0-0 draw at Lommel United on 19 September, a 1-0 home loss to Anderlecht on 11 September, and a 4-0 home loss to KVC Westerlo on 5 September. Top scorer Myron Van Brederode carries three goals in all competitions, but Mechelen have generated an average of just 1.13 expected goals per game over their last five matches while allowing 1.52.

Our model leans narrowly towards a St. Truiden win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a St. Truiden win. That call reflects KV Mechelen's severe injury list and winless home record in the league, alongside St. Truiden's run of four consecutive head-to-head victories. The low confidence rating accounts for St. Truiden's own recent stumbles, having failed to score in their previous two league fixtures, as well as absences of their own in injured pair Arbnor Muja and Frédéric Soèllé Soèllé.