Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig: Seven Goals in Past Two

Bayer LeverkusenBAY

Patrik Schick 44'
Miguel Gutiérrez 57'

Bundesliga

2–0

Full Time

HT 1–0

BayArena

Leverkusen

RB LeipzigLEI

AI ForecastsGraded

Two of the Bundesliga's most attacking sides meet at the BayArena, and last season's 4-1 here is fresh in the memory. Leverkusen have started with mixed results but their underlying numbers at home — averaging over two expected goals and conceding less than one — suggest a side…

Match ResultHome Win48%

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Match Stats

Top Stats

2.20xG0.85

51%Possession49%

18 (6)Shots (on target)12 (3)

4Big Chances Created1

Attacking Play

2.36xG on Target0.59

1.90Expected Assists (xA)1.29

46Final Third Entries56

29Penalty Area Entries26

Possession & Passing

484 · –Passes (accuracy)473 · –

9Corners6

21Poss. Won — Def 3rd15

20Poss. Won — Mid 3rd21

Duels & Pressing

42 (46%)Duels Won49 (54%)

6 (40%)Aerial Duels Won9 (60%)

50Ball Recoveries49

11.2PPDA (Pressing)13.8

Defending & Discipline

3Saves4

14Fouls8

+0.59Goals Prevented+0.36

Bayer Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig: Seven Goals in Past Two

Updated Sun 20 Sept

Bayer Leverkusen host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on Sunday 20 September 2026 at BayArena in Leverkusen, having defeated the visitors in each of their last two league meetings by multi-goal margins.

Leverkusen hold seven goals across two recent meetings

Recent history between the two clubs favours the hosts. Bayer Leverkusen defeated RB Leipzig 4-1 on 2 May 2026, following up a 3-1 away victory on 20 December 2025. Over those two fixtures, Leverkusen outscored Leipzig 7-2.

The home side enter the contest 10th in the Bundesliga table with four points from three matches, scoring eight goals and conceding five. Their home form in the league has started cleanly with one win from one match, an emphatic 4-0 victory against Union Berlin on 5 September 2026. Leverkusen extended their home form on 16 September 2026 with a 2-0 win over Celje in the UEFA Europa League.

Leipzig struggle on the road despite high scoring at home

RB Leipzig sit 7th in the standings with six points from three league outings, having netted nine goals and conceded three. However, their results display a sharp divide between home and away performances. Leipzig produced clean-sheet victories on their own turf, beating Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-0 on 29 August 2026 and Hamburger SV 5-0 on 13 September 2026. Ridle Baku stands as their leading scorer in all competitions with two goals.

On the road, Leipzig have faltered. They fell 3-1 away to Werder Bremen in their only away Bundesliga match of the campaign on 5 September 2026, before suffering a 4-1 away defeat against Como on 10 September 2026 in the UEFA Champions League. Leipzig have conceded seven goals across their two away trips this season.

Four confirmed absences on each side

Both squads carry four confirmed injuries or illnesses into Sunday's game. Bayer Leverkusen are missing G. Doue, M. Culbreath, and N. Tella through injury, while K. Eichhorn remains sidelined through illness. Striker Patrik Schick leads the Leverkusen attack having scored three goals in all competitions this season.

RB Leipzig travel without four players due to injury: A. Ouedraogo, C. Baumgartner, M. Guiu, and R. Reitz are all ruled out. Despite these absences, Leipzig have created 2.31 expected goals a match over their last four outings, nearly matching Leverkusen's 2.34 expected goals created per game.

Our model expects a Bayer Leverkusen win

Our model expects a Bayer Leverkusen win with medium confidence. Leverkusen's chance prevention provides the primary foundation, as they allow an average of 0.87 expected goals compared to Leipzig's 1.29 allowed across their last four matches. Combined with Leipzig's back-to-back away defeats where they conceded seven goals, and Leverkusen's consecutive head-to-head victories by two or more goals, the underlying metrics tilt the contest toward the home side.