SC Paderborn 07 vs 1899 Hoffenheim: Hosts Yet to Score
Updated
SC Paderborn 07 host 1899 Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga on Sunday, 20 September 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn. The home side enter the contest seeking their first goal of the Bundesliga campaign.
SC Paderborn 07 search for their first league goal
SC Paderborn 07 sit 16th in the table with one point from their opening three league fixtures, having failed to score while conceding four times. They opened the season with a 0-0 draw away at FSV Mainz 05 on 29 August 2026, before suffering a 1-0 defeat at home to SC Freiburg on 5 September and a 3-0 loss away at Borussia Dortmund on 12 September. Across their three matches with available chance data, the home side have averaged 0.65 expected goals created per game while allowing 1.34 at the back.
Injury problems thin the home attack
SC Paderborn 07 contend with several player absences heading into the fixture. L. Eickel, N. Awortwie-Grant and T. Gayret are all ruled out through injury. Forward S. Michel is listed as doubtful due to injury, further limiting the options in an attack that has yet to register a goalscorer this season.
1899 Hoffenheim deliver goals at both ends
1899 Hoffenheim sit 13th in the Bundesliga table with three points from three games, having scored six goals and conceded seven. Their domestic campaign began with a 3-2 defeat away at 1. FC Köln on 29 August 2026, followed by a 3-2 loss against Borussia Dortmund on 5 September and a 2-1 victory over VfB Stuttgart on 12 September. They enter this fixture following a 2-0 defeat away at OFI in the UEFA Europa League on 17 September 2026. Top scorer A. Hložek leads the side with two goals in all competitions. In their last three games with chance data, Hoffenheim created 1.84 expected goals per game while allowing 1.99. The visitors enter with an empty injury list.
Our model expects a 1899 Hoffenheim win
Our model expects a 1899 Hoffenheim win for this Matchweek 4 fixture. Hoffenheim create 1.84 expected goals per match and possess established scoring threats like A. Hložek, offering far more potency than a Paderborn attack that generates only 0.65 expected goals per game. Even with Hoffenheim playing three days after their continental trip to OFI and losing their only prior league away match at 1. FC Köln, Paderborn's lack of offensive output and injuries to players such as S. Michel tilt the matchup towards the visitors.
