SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart

SC Paderborn 07 host VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga on Saturday, 10 October 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn. The visiting side arrive without a point on their travels in the league this season, having conceded seven goals in two away defeats.

Stuttgart struggle away despite Demirović goals

Stuttgart sit 15th in the Bundesliga table with three points from four fixtures, holding a goal difference of -3. Their league campaign away from home has produced zero points from two attempts, beginning with a 1-5 defeat against Bayern München on 28 August 2026 and followed by a 1-2 loss at 1899 Hoffenheim on 12 September 2026. Across their last five matches in all competitions, Stuttgart have averaged 1.86 expected goals created per game while conceding 2.32 expected goals per game. Forward E. Demirović leads their attack with four goals across all competitions this season, helping them secure a 3-1 Champions League win over Viking on 9 September 2026 and a 4-1 league victory over 1. FC Köln on 4 September 2026.

Paderborn lean on Hoffenheim victory amidst low chance volume

Paderborn sit 12th in the table with four points from four matches, scoring three goals and allowing five. After opening their season with a 0-0 draw at FSV Mainz 05 on 29 August 2026, a 0-1 home loss to SC Freiburg on 5 September 2026, and a 0-3 away defeat to Borussia Dortmund on 12 September 2026, Paderborn collected their first league win with a 3-1 home victory over 1899 Hoffenheim on 20 September 2026. That result left their home league record at one win and one defeat from two matches, with three goals scored and two conceded. However, over their last four matches with available chance data, Paderborn have generated an average of 0.66 expected goals per match while allowing 1.36 expected goals.

Six injuries weaken both squads

Injuries limit both sides heading into the fixture at Home Deluxe Arena. Stuttgart will be without five confirmed players: Ameen Al Dakhil, Dan-Axel Zagadou, Justin Diehl, Luca Jaquez, and Tiago Tomás are all sidelined with injuries, while midfielder Nikolas Nartey is doubtful. Paderborn have four confirmed absentees through injury, with Marcel Hoffmeier, Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant, Sebastian Klaas, and Timur Gayret all ruled out of the contest.

Our model expects a VfB Stuttgart win

Our forecasting model expects a VfB Stuttgart win, giving the call medium confidence. The projection is backed by Stuttgart's attacking underlying numbers, as they generate 1.86 expected goals per match compared to Paderborn's 0.66, with E. Demirović providing regular finishing up front. Complicating the call are Stuttgart's defensive vulnerabilities on the road, where they have conceded seven times in two losses, alongside a heavy absence list in defense and Paderborn's recent 3-1 home win over Hoffenheim.