Estoril vs Casa Pia

Estoril face Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Estoril, with both teams searching for their first league victory of the campaign. The two clubs occupy the bottom two spots in the table after six fixtures.

Yanis Begraoui accounts for both Estoril goals

Estoril sit 17th in the table with two points from six games, having scored twice and conceded eight. Striker Yanis Begraoui has scored both of those goals across all competitions this season. At Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, the home side have drawn two and lost one of their three league fixtures, managing one goal and conceding three.

Chance creation remains low for the hosts. Over their last five matches with recorded data, Estoril generated an average of 0.47 expected goals per game while allowing 0.96. They enter Sunday following a 1-0 defeat away at SC Braga on 14 September, having previously drawn 0-0 at home against Arouca on 7 September.

Casa Pia have scored once in six league games

Casa Pia are 18th in the table with one point from six games and a goal difference of minus 14. They have scored just once and conceded 15 times, including a 7-0 home defeat against Benfica on 17 August and a 4-1 loss to FC Porto on 12 September.

Away from home, Casa Pia have not scored in three Primeira Liga matches, recording one draw and two defeats while conceding three goals. Their only away point came in a 0-0 draw at Vitória SC on 6 September. Across their last five matches with available chance data, Casa Pia created 0.33 expected goals per game and conceded 1.01.

Our model expects an Estoril win

Our forecasting model expects an Estoril win with medium confidence. While both teams drew their last two encounters—0-0 in March 2026 and 2-2 in October 2025—Casa Pia have yet to score away from home in three league matches. Estoril also generate slightly more threat, averaging 0.47 expected goals created compared to Casa Pia's 0.33, while allowing fewer expected goals at 0.96 per game.