Spain's flawless defensive record in this tournament — five consecutive clean sheets and an xG against of just 0.29 — meets its sternest test against a Belgium side that has scored two or more in four of its last five. Luis de la Fuente's heavy rotation, with six regular starters missing, inevitably weakens their usual control and goal threat. Belgium’s five changes also raise questions, but their direct pace through Doku and De Bruyne could expose a shuffled Spanish backline. The key battle is whether Spain's weakened press can still smother Belgium's transition game; a tight, tense quarter-final seems likely.
Spain's tournament-long defensive solidity and superior possession structure give them a clear edge, but six missing regulars prevent this from being a high-confidence call.
Even with rotation, Spain are yet to concede a goal in the competition and have not lost in 90 minutes across their last five matches; a Belgian win inside 90 minutes is the least likely outcome.
Spain's clean-sheet run looks vulnerable with a rotated defence, while Belgium's last three games all featured three or more goals and their pace on the break should crack the door open at least once.
High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →
Pre-match → Final call, after lineups and injuries landed.
Switched from 2 or fewer goals to 3 or more goals
Switched from No to Yes · confidence high → medium
Switched from 2-0 to 2-1
Withdrawn before kickoff — had been Home, then Home
Kept Home, moved confidence medium → low
Spain
1.96xG
17 shots · 8 on target
Belgium
0.34xG
5 shots · 2 on target
Mikel MerinoGoal
88' · Spain
Key Moments
Spain
MID · 90' · 2 key passes
MID · 90' · 4 shots (2 on target)
DEF · 90' · 2 key passes · 1 shot (1 on target)
23
MID · 86' · 1 key pass · 2 shots (1 on target)
MID · 55' · 1 goal · 1 key pass · 1 shot (1 on target)
Belgium
GK · 71'
FWD · 90' · 1 goal · 1 shot (1 on target)
DEF · 90'
DEF · 90'
MID · 90' · 1 key pass
14
22
12
8
16
15
10
19
21Spain
Coach: Luis de la Fuente
Belgium
Coach: Rudi Garcia
Spain
No team news reported
Belgium
Cruciate Ligament Rupture
Wound
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 2 |  Egypt | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 |  Iran | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 |  New Zealand | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 |  Cape Verde Islands | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 |  Uruguay | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 |  Saudi Arabia | 3 | -4 | 2 |
