Italy vs Belgium: Italy Unbeaten in Recent Meetings
Published
Italy face Belgium in UEFA Nations League League A Matchweek 1 on Friday, 25 September 2026 at the Olimpico in Roma, with the home side entering on the back of an unbeaten record across the last two meetings between the teams.
Unbeaten in the last two meetings
Italy took four points from Belgium across their two clashes in late 2024. A 2-2 draw on 10 October 2024 preceded a 1-0 victory on 14 November 2024. Belgium enter this campaign following their summer tournament run, where they recorded a 4-1 victory over USA on 7 July 2026 and a 3-2 win against Senegal on 1 July 2026, before exiting with a 2-1 defeat to Spain on 10 July 2026.
Belgium create 1.94 expected goals a match
Over their last five matches with chance data, Belgium have produced 1.94 expected goals per game while allowing 1.43. Romelu Lukaku leads their attack with three goals across all competitions this season. Belgium's squad under coach Mark van Bommel features six players currently playing in Italian club football, including Kevin De Bruyne, Charles De Ketelaere, and Arthur Theate, while goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is sitting out this Nations League campaign.
Our model leans towards an Italy win
Our model leans narrowly towards an Italy win. The call reflects Italy's recent advantage in this fixture, having secured a win and a draw in 2024 while conceding two goals across both matches. However, the low confidence reflects Belgium's offensive output, underlined by 1.94 expected goals generated per match and a recent run that featured five goals against New Zealand and four against USA.
