This Round of 16 clash between Iberian rivals Portugal and Spain is set to be a tense, tactical affair given their recent history of low-scoring, drawn encounters. Spain arrive as the more convincing side, topping their group with a perfect defensive record and a powerful xG differential that points to a team controlling matches with and without the ball. Portugal, while unbeaten with two clean sheets, have a significantly lower xG for and rely on moments of individual brilliance rather than sustained creative pressure. The key battle lies in Spain's suffocating possession structure against Portugal's defensive resilience; if Spain's attack clicks, Portugal's rearguard could finally break, but a tight draw after 90 minutes would be the most familiar outcome in this fixture.
Win or DrawHIGHHigh confidence, rated against other forecasts of the same outcome typeAway or DrawIncorrect
Spain are unbeaten in the tournament with four consecutive clean sheets, while Portugal have failed to beat them in normal time across their last eight meetings, with six ending in draws.
Total GoalsHIGHHigh confidence, rated against other forecasts of the same outcome type2 or fewer goalsCorrect
Five of the last six head-to-head matches, including a World Cup clash and a Nations League finals fixture, have featured two goals or fewer, and Spain's defense has yet to concede.
Match ResultMEDMedium confidence, rated against other forecasts of the same outcome typeDrawIncorrect
With six draws in their last eight encounters and both teams showing solid but unspectacular attacking numbers, another stalemate in normal time is the most logical single result.
High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →
Match StatsIncludes deeper match tracker data — pressing, ball progression and shot quality — alongside the standard boxscore. Coverage is limited to major competitions, and a specific match can still go unmatched.
Top Stats
0.63xG1.69
45%Possession55%
10 (2)Shots (on target)15 (6)
1Big Chances Created3
Attacking Play
0.89xG on Target1.46
Possession & Passing
426 · 84%Passes (accuracy)531 · 88%
3Corners7
Duels & Pressing
47Duels Won35
11 (73%)Aerial Duels Won4 (27%)
Defending & Discipline
5Saves2
9Fouls13
Shot MapEvery shot of the match, sized by chance quality (xG). Tap one to see where it went. Coverage is limited to major competitions.
Portugal
0.63xG
10 shots · 2 on target
Spain
1.69xG
15 shots · 6 on target
GoalSavedOff TargetBlockedWoodworkDot size = xG
Mikel MerinoGoal
90+1' · Spain
23 / 25
xG
0.55
xGOT
0.78
Body part
Left foot
Situation
Open play
Key Moments
Match Events
Half Time
56'
N. Semedo
off: N. Mendes
Portugal
71'
R. Leao
off: Joao Felix
Portugal
71'
D. Dalot
off: J. Cancelo
Portugal
75'
F. Torres
off: A. Baena
Spain
83'
F. Conceicao
off: P. Neto
Portugal
83'
Player RatingsPerformance rating out of 10 from the match data feed, covering every action a player took. The 5 best-rated from each side are shown; the star marks the highest rated on the pitch.
1
13
3
20
23
15
11
8
18
7
Spain
Cape Verde Islands
Uruguay
Saudi Arabia
Colombia
Portugal
Congo DR
Uzbekistan
