Erzurumspor FK vs Samsunspor: Five Samsunspor Absences
Updated
Erzurumspor FK face Samsunspor in the Süper Lig on Sunday, 20 September 2026, at Erzurum Kazim Karabekir in Erzurum, with both sides level on four points near the foot of the table.
Samsunspor arrive with three straight losses and five absentees
Samsunspor enter the match in 15th place after three consecutive league defeats. They lost 5-1 at home against Çorum FK on 12 September, 1-0 away at Kocaelispor on 6 September, and 2-0 at home to Fenerbahçe on 30 August. In total, they have scored six goals and conceded 11 across their opening five fixtures.
Selection issues compound that run of form. F. Kaya is ruled out through injury, while A. Sousa, E. Tavsan, and J. Assoumou are not in the matchday squad. T. Coulibaly is also doubtful due to squad omission. Samsunspor have taken one win on their travels this season, winning 2-0 at Rizespor on 22 August, but have managed just one goal in their three matches since.
Erzurumspor FK average 0.66 expected goals per match
Erzurumspor FK sit 16th in the standings with four points and a goal difference of -9. They have scored two goals and conceded 11 in their first five games. Over their past five fixtures with underlying data, the home side have averaged 0.66 expected goals created per game while allowing 1.66.
Eren Tozlu has scored both of Erzurumspor FK's goals this season in all competitions. The team suffered a 3-0 defeat away at Beşiktaş on 11 September and a 4-0 home defeat to Galatasaray on 21 August. However, their only league victory of the campaign came at Erzurum Kazim Karabekir on 5 September, when they defeated Konyaspor 1-0. Erzurumspor FK enter this fixture with no confirmed absences.
Our model leans towards a Samsunspor win
Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Samsunspor win. Although Samsunspor have conceded eight times across their last three matches, they have produced better attacking volume than the hosts, generating 1.23 expected goals per game compared to Erzurumspor FK's 0.66. Erzurumspor FK have a fully fit squad and won their last home match, but their return of two goals in five matches remains a significant barrier.
