Iceland vs Estonia: Model Firm on Home Victory

IcelandISL

Andri Guðjohnsen 45'

UEFA Nations League

1–1

Full Time

HT 1–0

Laugardalsvöllur

Reykjavik

EstoniaEST

Maksim Paskotsi 64'

AI ForecastsGraded

Iceland open their Nations League C campaign on home soil in Reykjavik, where they have historically been a tough proposition for sides at this level. Estonia arrive with a leaner recent record and seldom pose an attacking threat on their travels, making this a fixture the hosts…

Match ResultHome Win73%

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High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →

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Match Stats

Top Stats

1.39xG1.38

63%Possession37%

19 (8)Shots (on target)8 (5)

2Big Chances Created1

Attacking Play

75Final Third Entries49

51Penalty Area Entries18

Possession & Passing

538 · –Passes (accuracy)315 · –

7Corners3

25Poss. Won — Def 3rd21

23Poss. Won — Mid 3rd10

Duels & Pressing

43 (52%)Duels Won39 (48%)

20 (63%)Aerial Duels Won12 (38%)

58Ball Recoveries51

9.5PPDA (Pressing)25.6

Defending & Discipline

4Saves7

13Fouls13

Iceland vs Estonia: Model Firm on Home Victory

Published Fri 25 Sept

Iceland host Estonia in League C Matchweek 1 of the UEFA Nations League on Saturday 26 September 2026 at Laugardalsvöllur in Reykjavik, with our model projecting a winning start for the home side.

Group C4 begins at Laugardalsvöllur

The fixture in Reykjavik marks the opening round of Group C4, placing Iceland and Estonia alongside Bulgaria and Luxembourg in the four-nation pool. Laugardalsvöllur stages the first competitive test of the 2026 tournament for both teams as they begin a six-match group programme in League C.

Neither squad enters the fixture with confirmed player absences listed in the team reports for this match. With both Iceland and Estonia starting on zero points in matchweek 1, the opening encounter in Reykjavik sets the early positions in Group C4 before the subsequent rounds unfold in October and November 2026.

A swift rematch scheduled for 6 October 2026

The fixture calendar pairs these two teams twice within an 11-day span. Following this contest on 26 September 2026 at Laugardalsvöllur, Estonia host Iceland in the reverse match on 6 October 2026.

Between those two head-to-head fixtures, both nations face rapid schedules against the other two members of Group C4. Iceland travel to Luxembourg on 29 September 2026 and return home to face Bulgaria on 3 October 2026. Estonia visit Bulgaria on 29 September 2026 and then host Luxembourg on 3 October 2026. That run of four fixtures across late September and early October means the result at Laugardalsvöllur will shape the standing of both sides ahead of their second meeting on 6 October 2026.

Our model firmly expects an Iceland win

Our forecasting model firmly expects an Iceland win on 26 September 2026. The high-confidence assessment backs Iceland to make home advantage count at Laugardalsvöllur before heading into away action against Luxembourg three days later. Estonia face a demanding opening assignment on Icelandic soil before their own schedule continues against Bulgaria on 29 September 2026.

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Iceland	4	6	8
2	Estonia	4	1	6
3	Bulgaria	4	-2	4
4

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Iceland	4	6	8
2	Estonia	4	1	6
3	Bulgaria	4	-2	4
4