Estonia vs Iceland

Estonia host Iceland in UEFA Nations League League C on Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn, with two points separating the top two teams in Group 4.

Iceland top Group 4 despite five injuries

Iceland lead League C - Group 4 with seven points from three matches, scoring seven times and allowing one goal. They arrive on back-to-back 3-0 victories, defeating Luxembourg away on 29 September 2026 and Bulgaria at home on 3 October 2026. Top scorer O. Óskarsson has scored three goals this season in all competitions, leading an attack that generates 2.22 expected goals per game while allowing 0.90.

Five players are unavailable through injury for the trip to Tallinn: Albert Guðmundsson, Elías Ólafsson, Gísli Thórdarson, Kristian Hlynsson, and Sverrir Ingi Ingason. Iceland won their only away match of this Nations League campaign 3-0 against Luxembourg, but these absences test their squad depth across multiple positions.

Estonia remain unbeaten but lose Mets to suspension

Estonia sit second in the group with five points from three games, having conceded only once. They beat Luxembourg 1-0 at A. Le Coq Arena on 3 October 2026 after a 0-0 draw away to Bulgaria on 29 September 2026. Over their three group fixtures, Estonia have averaged 1.09 expected goals created and 0.95 allowed per game.

Two regular starters miss out for the home side. Karol Mets serves a suspension, while Vlasiy Sinyavskiy is sidelined by injury. Estonia took a point from the reverse fixture on 26 September 2026, holding Iceland to a 1-1 draw.

Our model expects an Iceland win

Our model expects an Iceland win. Iceland's chance creation advantage underpins that assessment, with 2.22 expected goals generated per match against Estonia's 1.09. However, Iceland must manage without five injured players against an Estonian defence that has conceded one goal in 270 minutes of group football and previously took a 1-1 draw in Reykjavik.