Georgia vs Ukraine: Ukraine Hold Head-to-Head Edge
Published
Georgia face Ukraine in League B of the UEFA Nations League on Monday, 28 September 2026 at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi, trailing the visitors after the opening round of fixtures.
Ukraine took maximum points on 25 September 2026
Ukraine opened their campaign with a 1-0 away victory against Hungary on 25 September 2026. That result placed them second in Group 2 with three points and a plus-one goal difference from their single outing. Andrea Maldera's team travel to Tbilisi with an away record of one win from one match in the tournament.
In contrast, Georgia began Group 2 with a 0-1 home loss to Northern Ireland on 25 September 2026. The defeat leaves Georgia fourth in the table with zero points, having scored zero goals and conceded one across their opening fixture. It also leaves Georgia's home record in this competition at zero wins, zero draws, and one loss from one match at Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena.
Ukraine hold the recent advantage from 2024 meetings
The two nations met twice in late 2024. Ukraine secured a 1-0 victory over Georgia on 11 October 2024, followed by a 1-1 draw on 16 November 2024. Across those two encounters, Georgia managed one goal and collected a single point, while Ukraine earned four points without defeat.
Both squads entered this window with adjustments. Ukraine traveled without Artem Dovbyk and Oleksandr Andrievskyi, calling up Oleksandr Pikhalyonok and Ihor Krasnopir to supplement the squad, while midfielder Anzor Mekvabishvili reported to Georgia with 33 senior international caps.
Our model leans narrowly towards a Georgia win
Our model leans narrowly towards a Georgia win, assigning low confidence to the outcome. The projection weighs Georgia's need to recover standing in Group 2 following their 0-1 defeat to Northern Ireland against Ukraine's 1-0 away win against Hungary on 25 September 2026. Ukraine also hold the edge across recent head-to-head fixtures after collecting four points from their two meetings in 2024.

