Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: Low Chance Creation

RomaniaROU

Daniel Birligea 28'
Alexandru Cicâldău 62'

UEFA Nations League

2–4

Full Time

HT 1–3

Arena Naţională

Bucureşti

Bosnia & HerzegovinaBIH

Armin Gigovic 12'
Tarik Muharemovic 19'
Haris Tabaković 40'
Ermin Mahmić 55'

AI ForecastsGraded

Romania bounced back from a narrow defeat in their opener, showing enough in possession to suggest they can impose themselves against a Bosnia side that laboured to a goalless draw away. Edi Iordănescu's men have the sharper attacking tools, but Bosnia's stubborn 4-4-2 block is…

Match ResultHome Win46%

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Match Stats

Top Stats

0.95xG2.59

56%Possession44%

13 (4)Shots (on target)15 (7)

2Big Chances Created5

Attacking Play

61Final Third Entries41

33Penalty Area Entries17

Possession & Passing

591 · –Passes (accuracy)462 · –

4Corners3

14Poss. Won — Def 3rd24

22Poss. Won — Mid 3rd13

Duels & Pressing

30 (38%)Duels Won50 (63%)

10 (42%)Aerial Duels Won14 (58%)

44Ball Recoveries45

14.7PPDA (Pressing)35.6

Defending & Discipline

3Saves2

15Fouls9

Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: Low Chance Creation

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Sweden	4	4	10
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	4	3	8
3	Poland	4	3	4
4

Published Mon 28 Sept

Romania meet Bosnia & Herzegovina in UEFA Nations League B Matchweek 2 on Monday, 28 September 2026, at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti. The visitors arrive averaging only 0.47 expected goals created across their last five matches with chance data.

Bosnia & Herzegovina limited to 0.47 expected goals

Bosnia & Herzegovina opened their Nations League campaign on 25 September 2026 with a 0-0 draw away at Poland, leaving them third in Group 4 with 1 point and a neutral goal difference. While that result earned a point on the road, their offensive output remains low. Over their last five games with chance data, the visitors have generated 0.47 expected goals a game while conceding 1.12. Top scorer Ermin Mahmić leads the squad with 2 goals this season across all competitions. That scoreless display in Poland followed a summer tournament run featuring a 3-1 win over Qatar on 24 June 2026, a 1-4 defeat against Switzerland on 18 June 2026, and a 0-2 loss to the USA on 2 July 2026. Head coach Sergej Barbarez has also had to adapt his lineup with defender Amar Dedić ruled out due to a hamstring injury.

Romania seek recovery after Sweden defeat

Romania sit fourth in Group 4 with 0 points after their opening match on 25 September 2026 ended in a 1-2 defeat away at Sweden. That result leaves Romania with a goal difference of -1 after scoring once and conceding twice in their single group outing. Returning to Bucureşti offers the home side an opportunity to reset their standing in front of their home supporters inside the 55,611-capacity Arena Naţională.

Our model expects a Romania win

Our model expects a Romania win, backing the hosts with medium confidence. That projection is supported by Bosnia & Herzegovina's modest offensive return of 0.47 expected goals created and 1.12 allowed per game across recent competitive action. Romania must recover from their 1-2 loss in Sweden, but hosting an opponent that failed to find the net in Poland gives the home side a clear opening to secure their first points of the campaign.

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Season Form

League B · Group 4