Sweden vs Poland: Hosts Lead Group 4 After Opener
Published
Sweden face Poland in UEFA Nations League League B Matchweek 2 on Monday, 28 September 2026 at Friends Arena in Solna, holding first place in Group 4 after an opening 2-1 victory over Romania.
Sweden lead Group 4 despite conceding high chance quality
Graham Potter's side started their Nations League campaign on 25 September 2026 with a 2-1 home win against Romania, lifting them to 3 points from 1 game with a goal difference of +1. Alexander Isak leads their scoring with 2 goals this season across all competitions. That result followed a mixed run in June 2026, where Sweden defeated Tunisia 5-1 at home before a 1-5 defeat against the Netherlands, a 1-1 draw with Japan, and a 0-3 loss against France.
The underlying metrics indicate room for defensive tightening. Across their last 5 matches with chance data, Sweden have generated 0.86 expected goals per match while allowing 1.51 expected goals. Nonetheless, at Friends Arena, Sweden maintain a 100 percent record in this competition after their opening victory.
Poland open with a 0-0 draw and manage squad fitness
Poland sit 2nd in Group 4 with 1 point from 1 match after playing out a 0-0 draw at home to Bosnia & Herzegovina on 25 September 2026. Jan Urban's team was unable to find the net in their opener, leaving them with 0 goals scored and 0 conceded in the section.
The visitors travel without winger Oskar Pietuszewski, whom Urban confirmed would not be risked due to an ongoing muscle injury. Poland welcomed back defender Matty Cash, who returned to international action following recent club appearances, but their attack must find rhythm after being held scoreless in their first competitive outing of the window.
Our model expects a Sweden win
Our model expects a Sweden win, assigning medium confidence to the home team collecting all three points.
This assessment reflects Sweden's initial 2-1 win over Romania and their home ground record at Friends Arena, where they scored twice on Matchweek 1. Poland have yet to score in Group 4 after their 0-0 opening draw against Bosnia & Herzegovina, though Sweden's concession of 1.51 expected goals per game over their last five tracked fixtures suggests the visitors could find openings if they test the Swedish defence.
