Jupiler Pro League Matchweek 5 Results: Westerlo Stun

Matchweek 5 of the Belgian Jupiler Pro League delivered definitive scorelines, headlined by KVC Westerlo's emphatic 4-0 victory on the road against KV Mechelen. Our forecasting model read the overarching match results well, but struggled significantly to predict the shape and flow of the games, resulting in a poor showing across the goal-based metrics.

How our forecasts did

The model's read on both teams to score was the worst performing topic this round, landing just two of the nine graded calls. Predictions for the exact scoreline and the half-time and full-time outcome fared identically poorly, each returning two correct forecasts from nine. Total goals and the first team to score both saw four of the nine calls land.

Conversely, the foundational match result projections were the bright spot, alongside the win or draw topic. Seven of the nine match result calls landed correctly, as the model correctly identified the outright winner in the majority of the weekend's fixtures.

Results

Lommel United 0-1 Club Brugge KV Club Brugge leveraged their dominant possession and strong form to secure a narrow victory, validating our medium-confidence forecast for an away win. The model also correctly predicted that Club Brugge would be ahead at the break and win the match.

Charleroi 2-3 Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise broke through what had been a fortress at the Stade du Pays, overcoming Charleroi's perfect home start. The cautious projection for an away victory landed, as did the call for both teams to score.

KV Mechelen 0-4 KVC Westerlo In a clash of two porous defences, Westerlo emphatically secured the points away from home. Our model completely misread this one, projecting a KV Mechelen win, though the firm call for more than 2.5 goals proved accurate.

Standard Liege 1-0 Antwerp Standard Liege maintained their unbeaten start to the season with a tight victory over early pace-setters Antwerp. The cautious forecast for a Standard Liege win was correct, alongside the call for the hosts to open the scoring and the exact 1-0 scoreline.

St. Truiden 4-0 RAAL La Louvière St. Truiden found their first home win of the campaign in dominant fashion at Stayen. The firm forecast for a St. Truiden victory was never in doubt, and the calls for more than 2.5 goals and the hosts leading at half-time also landed perfectly.

Cercle Brugge 0-3 Gent Gent's formidable defensive solidity shone through again as they comfortably dispatched a struggling Cercle Brugge. The model correctly anticipated a Gent win and more than 2.5 goals in the match.

Kortrijk 0-2 Zulte Waregem Zulte Waregem secured their first away win of the campaign against a Kortrijk side rooted to the foot of the table. The medium-confidence call for an away win landed, and the model correctly predicted the exact 0-2 scoreline, as well as Zulte Waregem opening the scoring.

Anderlecht 0-0 Genk A clash between Anderlecht's flawless home record and Genk's high-scoring attack ended in a stalemate. The model incorrectly forecast an Anderlecht win and missed across the board on the goal projections.

SK Beveren 3-0 OH Leuven SK Beveren bounced back from a heavy recent defeat to shut out winless OH Leuven at the Freethiel. The cautious call for a home win was correct, as was the projection for more than 2.5 goals.

What we got wrong

The most glaring miss of the weekend came at the Kehrwegstadion. The model projected a KV Mechelen victory against KVC Westerlo, leaning on Westerlo's fragility on the road and their 14 goals shipped prior to this match. Instead, Westerlo delivered a comprehensive 4-0 thrashing, rendering the match result and early goal calls entirely incorrect.

Similarly, the model fundamentally misunderstood the dynamic between Anderlecht and Genk. Relying on Anderlecht's flawless home record—having conceded just once while building a five-game home winning streak—and Genk's record of shipping three goals per game on their travels, the forecast anticipated an Anderlecht victory with more than 2.5 goals. The reality was a tight, goalless draw that saw every single projection for the fixture miss the mark.

Matchweek 5 reinforces the defensive authority of Gent and Standard Liege at the top end of the division, while severely compounding the early-season misery for Kortrijk, OH Leuven, and KV Mechelen at the bottom.

Jupiler Pro League Matchweek 5 Predictions: Brugge to win

The Jupiler Pro League moves into Matchweek 5 with a spread of fixtures running from Friday 4 September through to Sunday 6 September 2026. Nine games are on the schedule, and our forecasting model has already analysed the opening contest in detail. It expects the round to begin with a statement of intent from one of Belgium's traditional heavyweights.

The match of the round: Lommel United vs Club Brugge KV

The weekend kicks off on Friday evening with Lommel United hosting Club Brugge KV. Lommel have collected seven points from their first four outings, a return that looks respectable on the surface. Beneath it, though, the numbers are troubling — they are allowing more than 22 shots per game and creating very little in the final third. That makes for a difficult assignment against a Club Brugge side that dominates the ball and generates an expected goals figure of 2.22 per match.

The model gives a firm call on goals. It projects more than 2.5 in the game and is equally confident that Club Brugge will score first. Brugge's recent record of eight wins in ten outings underpins the medium-confidence call for an away victory, and the underlying shot data suggests Lommel will struggle to keep them out.

Saturday

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise – The forecast for this one is still to come. It is a meeting of two sides who have shown contrasting early-season form, and the model's full assessment will be published closer to kickoff.

KV Mechelen vs KVC Westerlo – Our projection for this fixture is not yet available. Both teams will be looking to build momentum, and the model will weigh the underlying numbers before issuing its calls.

Standard Liege vs Antwerp – Forecasts are still to be produced for this Saturday tea-time kickoff. The model's analysis will be added as the match draws nearer.