Premiership Matchweek 5 Results: Hearts Win Edinburgh Derby

The Scottish Premiership served up a full midweek slate in Matchweek 5, headlined by Hearts’ impressive 3-1 victory in the Edinburgh derby against Hibernian—a result that caught our forecasting model on the wrong foot after it had expected a cautious home win. Overall, the model delivered flawless calls on first team to score and win-or-draw, but found the exact scorelines a tough ask, landing just one of six.

How our forecasts did

Exact scoreline was the clear stumbling block, with only a single correct call out of six—the model’s precise prediction of Kilmarnock 0-1 St Mirren being the lone success. On the other end of the scale, the model was spotless on win or draw and first team to score, both returning a perfect six from six. Match results came in at four of six, the errors being the missed home wins for Dundee and Hibernian. Total goals also landed four times, the over 2.5 goals flag staying down in the Dundee-St Johnstone and Kilmarnock-St Mirren fixtures. Both teams to score matched that four-from-six record, getting it wrong on Celtic-Aberdeen and Dundee-St Johnstone. The half-time and full-time forecasts split down the middle, three correct and three missed.

Results

Celtic 3-0 Aberdeen
Celtic maintained their perfect start with a commanding win. The model was strongly behind the home side with high-confidence calls for a Celtic victory, Celtic to score first, and Celtic to win or draw, all of which landed. The forecast of more than 2.5 goals also came in, but the low-confidence both-teams-to-score call was undone by Aberdeen’s failure to register, and the exact scoreline forecast of 2-0 missed by a single goal. The HT/FT call of Celtic ahead at the break and winning proved accurate.

Dundee 1-1 ST Johnstone
Dundee were held to a 1-1 draw by St Johnstone, a result that tripped up the model’s medium-confidence home win call. The cautious win-or-draw safety net paid off, but the over 2.5 goals and both-teams-to-score forecasts went the wrong way as only two goals were shared. Dundee did oblige as first scorers, as expected, but the exact scoreline (1-0) and half-time/full-time predictions missed the mark.

Kilmarnock 0-1 ST Mirren
St Mirren’s unbeaten start continued with a 1-0 win at bottom-side Kilmarnock, a fixture where the model shone. The medium-confidence away win, the all-important first goal to St Mirren, and the both-teams-to-score call (one team blanking) all came through. The exact scoreline of 0-1 was one of the round’s gems, though the total goals forecast of over 2.5 was too ambitious.

Motherwell 3-0 Dundee Utd
Motherwell ran out comfortable winners against Dundee United. The model backed a home win and Motherwell to score first, and those medium-confidence calls were vindicated. The over 2.5 goals forecast also materialised as Motherwell added late goals, while the both-teams-to-score call (at least one side kept scoreless) held with United drawing a blank. The exact 1-0 scoreline was off the mark, but the HT/FT call of Motherwell leading at the break and winning was spot on.

Falkirk 1-2 Rangers
Rangers did enough to see off Falkirk 2-1, fulfilling the model’s firm predictions of an away win, Rangers scoring first, and both teams hitting the net. The over 2.5 goals call also landed, but the exact scoreline (0-1) and the HT/FT forecast (Rangers ahead at the interval) fell short after Falkirk levelled and created a nervy finish.

Hibernian 1-3 Heart Of Midlothian
The Edinburgh derby finished 3-1 to Hearts, overturning the model’s cautious preference for a Hibernian win. The only correct calls here were those that avoided picking a side: the winner-either-way forecast and the both-teams-to-score call. Hearts struck first as the model also predicted, and the over 2.5 goals flag was raised, but the exact scoreline and half-time/full-time calls were wayward.

What we got wrong

The model’s decision to lean toward Hibernian in the derby was driven by their strong recent home record against Hearts—two wins in the last three meetings at Easter Road—and concerns over Hearts’ porous away form, which had seen them lose four of their last five on the road, conceding 3.2 goals per game. On the night, those patterns were turned on their head, as Hearts produced their best away display of the season and Hibernian’s defence crumbled.

Dundee’s failure to beat St Johnstone also stood out. The model had been swayed by Dundee’s excellent Dens Park record, with four wins from five at home stretching back into last season, and St Johnstone’s inability to pick up a point or score more than one goal on their travels. However, a resilient showing from the visitors earned them a deserved draw, leaving the home win call incorrect.

Matchweek 5 tightened the early-season picture, with Celtic and Rangers staying on course at the top while St Mirren underlined their credentials with another clean sheet. Hearts’ derby success will banish some away-day doubts, and the narrow defeats for Falkirk and Dundee United leave questions at the bottom. The model’s solid foundations on win-or-draw and first-scorer calls kept its record respectable, but the derby upset served as a reminder that local pride rarely follows the form book.

Premiership Matchweek 5 Predictions: Celtic vs Aberdeen

The Scottish Premiership’s first midweek card of the season arrives with a full slate of six fixtures, spanning Wednesday and Thursday. Celtic’s pursuit of a perfect start meets an Aberdeen side yet to fire on the road, while Rangers visit a Falkirk team desperate for a foothold and the Edinburgh derby still awaits its forecast. Our model has delivered calls for five of the six matches, painting a picture of the established order holding firm.

Celtic vs Aberdeen: Uphill task for the Dons

The round’s standout fixture brings together the league’s only remaining 100% record and an Aberdeen outfit whose travels have been painfully blunt. Celtic have won all three league outings, conceding only twice, and the underlying numbers at home are as commanding as ever. Aberdeen, by contrast, have mustered a solitary victory from three attempts and are yet to score on the road, falling to defeats in both away matches. The head-to-head record adds to the gloom for the visitors: Celtic have taken seven of the last ten meetings and all three encounters this calendar year.

Given those raw form lines, our model is firm in its expectation of a Celtic win. It also attaches high confidence to the champions opening the scoring, a reflection of how often they seize control early on home turf. The call for more than 2.5 goals is a medium-confidence one, while the prospect of both sides finding the net is regarded as unlikely – hardly a surprise when Aberdeen have drawn a blank on their travels.

Wednesday

Dundee’s early-season solidity is built on their form at Dens Park, where they have collected four wins from five stretching into last term, keeping clean sheets in three of those. St Johnstone are still searching for an away point, having scored just once across two road defeats. The model leans towards a home win with medium confidence and expects Dundee to break the deadlock. A low-confidence call for more than 2.5 goals hints at a tight affair, with at least one clean sheet looking plausible.

Kilmarnock are anchored to the foot of the table after three consecutive losses, their defence having shipped 13 goals, nine of those inside two home games. , in second and unbeaten, have been a picture of discipline, collecting two clean sheets from their opening three matches. The model sees the visitors taking the points and is confident they will score first, though the memory of last season’s 4-3 thriller at this ground serves as a warning that form can fray in this fixture.