The Scottish Premiership Matchweek 6 results saw Celtic maintain their perfect start to the campaign, while our forecasting model endured a frustratingly mixed weekend. Though we found some success at the top of the table, expecting heavy favourites to easily dismantle struggling opposition proved costly in the lower-scoring affairs, as three of our six headline match result calls missed the mark.
How our forecasts did
Our projection model leaned too heavily on expected dominance this weekend. The win or draw category was our only flawless metric, with all six calls landing. We managed three correct out of six graded match result calls, and three of six on total goals. The model struggled to read the flow of the games: both teams to score landed just two of six times. The granular projections suffered most, with first team to score, exact scoreline, and half-time and full-time each managing only one correct call out of six graded.
Saturday's Results
Aberdeen 0-0 Kilmarnock The model cautiously projected a home win, expecting an Aberdeen attack to exploit a Kilmarnock side that arrived at Pittodrie rooted to the bottom having shipped 14 goals in four games. Instead, the match ended scoreless, completely missing our projections for goals and an Aberdeen opener.
Dundee Utd 1-1 Falkirk Our cautious call for a Dundee Utd victory fell short. The model noted Falkirk's dire form—losing eight of ten overall and struggling to score on the road—but the visitors managed to find the net at Tannadice to force a draw.
Rangers 1-0 Motherwell A much better read for our model, which correctly called the Rangers win, projecting they would score first and lead at the break. Motherwell arrived at Ibrox unbeaten on the road, but as the analysis warned, their away defensive numbers gave the hosts the opportunities they needed to secure the points.
ST Mirren 1-2 Celtic Our most impressive projection of the weekend. The model issued a firm call for a Celtic win and remarkably landed the exact 1-2 scoreline for the visitors. Celtic carried a perfect record and a massive underlying attacking threat to Paisley, successfully overcoming a St Mirren side that had started the season brightly with three clean sheets.
Sunday's Results
Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 Dundee The model confidently forecast a Hearts victory at Tynecastle, relying on their perfect home record and a history of overwhelming Dundee. That match result call landed safely, alongside the projection for more than 2.5 goals, though we incorrectly expected at least one side to be kept off the scoresheet.
ST Johnstone 2-1 Hibernian We missed the match result here, forecasting a Hibernian win based on their perfect away record. Instead, St Johnstone protected their own unbeaten home run at McDiarmid Park. We did, however, correctly forecast an open contest, with both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals landing as expected.
What we got wrong
Our biggest misjudgements came from overestimating how easily struggling defences could be broken down. Kilmarnock arrived averaging 3.5 goals conceded per match, presenting what the model deemed a golden opportunity for Aberdeen, yet they walked away with a 0-0 draw. Falkirk similarly defied their woeful away scoring record to take a point from Tannadice.
The model was particularly poor at predicting match flow this round. Only one of our six first team to score projections landed. We consistently expected the perceived stronger sides to strike early, but the resistance from the likes of Kilmarnock and Falkirk meant those early advantages never materialised.
The weekend leaves Celtic setting a relentless pace at the summit, while the early-season data for teams at the bottom clearly needs a recalibration as fragile defences begin to show unexpected resilience.
