Super League 1 Matchweek 4 Results: OFI Stun Olympiakos

Super League 1 Matchweek 4 delivered a weekend of upsets in Greece, headlined by OFI's shock victory over Olympiakos and bottom-side Asteras Tripolis holding leaders AEK Athens to a draw. The unpredictability across the division made it a punishing round for our forecasting model, which missed the mark on several firm projections.

How our forecasts did

It was a bruising weekend for precision, with none of the seven graded exact scoreline calls landing. The primary match result forecasts also struggled, managing just three correct calls from seven graded fixtures, as early-season form guides were torn up. The win or draw projections provided the only real stability, landing six of the seven calls. Elsewhere, total goals and both teams to score each saw four of the seven calls land, while the half-time and full-time projections found three correct outcomes. The first team to score topic also suffered from the weekend's surprises, managing just two correct calls.

Saturday's Results

Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 OFI OFI ended a ten-game losing streak against Olympiakos by snatching an unexpected away victory. Our model had firmly projected a home win and for Olympiakos to open the scoring, though the cautious calls for fewer than 2.5 goals and at least one clean sheet did land.

Iraklis 1908 1-1 Atromitos Iraklis 1908's first home outing of the season ended in a stalemate against a toothless Atromitos side. The model's cautious call for a home win missed, but it correctly projected the double outcome and fewer than 2.5 goals.

Sunday's Results

Kalamata 3-1 Volos NFC Kalamata secured their first victory of the campaign after shipping six goals in their opening three winless matches. The model correctly made a cautious call for a home win, whilst also accurately projecting both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals.

Asteras Tripolis 1-1 AEK Athens FC Bottom side Asteras Tripolis, who arrived with no points and no home goals, remarkably held an AEK Athens side that had scored ten times in three matches. Our firm projection for an away win was undone, though the safety net of an AEK Athens win or draw proved correct.

Kifisia 0-0 Levadiakos A goalless draw did little to help either side, with Levadiakos remaining scoreless for the season despite generating half-chances. The model leaned cautiously towards a Kifisia win, which missed, but correctly projected a level game at the break, fewer than 2.5 goals, and at least one side failing to score.

PAOK 2-0 Aris Thessalonikis PAOK maintained their perfect home record by dispatching Aris in the Derby of Thessaloniki. The model's firm call for a PAOK victory was correct, as were the projections for the hosts to score first and to lead at half-time before winning the match.

Panathinaikos 3-0 Panetolikos In an early-season clash between two sides with perfect records, Panathinaikos emerged victorious. The model accurately projected a home win, for Panathinaikos to score first, and for them to lead at the break, though the expectation of fewer than 2.5 goals fell short.

What we got wrong

The weekend's biggest misses stemmed from placing too much trust in early-season dominance and historical supremacy. Our model heavily backed Olympiakos to dispatch OFI, pointing to a ten-match winning streak against them and a sturdy defence that had conceded just once all season. Instead, OFI shrugged off their prior away defeat to take all three points, wrecking the match result, first goalscorer, and half-time/full-time forecasts in one blow.

Similarly, the model could not see past AEK Athens brushing aside Asteras Tripolis. Asteras had started the campaign with three defeats and zero home goals, while AEK arrived as the highest-rated side in the league, bringing a phenomenal away record against Asteras and an attacking return of ten goals in three games. Asteras finding a way to secure a draw dismantled a raft of firm projections, including an away win and for AEK to score first.

Matchweek 4 proved that early-season momentum is a fragile concept in the Super League 1. With previously perfect records broken and struggling sides finding unexpected resilience, the division's hierarchy looks far less certain heading into the next round of fixtures.

Super League 1 Matchweek 4 Predictions: Olympiakos Host OFI

The Greek Super League 1 moves into Matchweek 4 this weekend, bringing a full slate of seven fixtures across Saturday, September 12 and Sunday, September 13. As the early-season noise begins to settle and true form reveals itself, defensive solidity is emerging as the defining trait of the early pace-setters. With the table starting to take a more familiar shape, this round offers a clearer picture of which clubs have the underlying metrics to sustain a prolonged domestic challenge and which might be flattering to deceive.

Olympiakos seek to extend perfect streak against OFI

The standout fixture of the weekend takes place in Piraeus, where Olympiakos host an OFI side seeking to overcome a deeply daunting historical record. The home side have dominated this matchup in recent times, aiming to extend a remarkable head-to-head sequence that currently stands at ten wins from ten meetings. The most recent of those encounters resulted in a comfortable 3-0 victory for Olympiakos during last season's Super Cup, setting a high bar for the visitors to clear on Saturday afternoon.

Olympiakos have built their early-season platform on rigid defensive solidity. They have kept clean sheets in two of their opening three league outings, conceding just a single goal in the process. While OFI arrive with a respectable six points to their name, their vulnerability on the road is already apparent, having lost their only away trip of the campaign so far.

Our forecasting model has a firm position on this clash, projecting an Olympiakos Piraeus win with high confidence. The data points towards a controlled, low-scoring affair rather than an open contest. The model expects fewer than 2.5 goals in the match and anticipates at least one side to be kept off the scoresheet. A firm projection also backs the hosts to score the opening goal, while a speculative exact scoreline call suggests a narrow 1-0 home victory, with Olympiakos ahead at the break and seeing it out to the final whistle.

Saturday's remaining fixture

Later on Saturday evening, Iraklis 1908 finally get their first home outing of the season as they welcome Atromitos. The hosts are expected to deploy a compact 5-4-1 system, which is well-placed to frustrate an Atromitos side that has proven winless and toothless on the road. Although the visitors' broader ten-game form hints at a lingering attacking threat, their current campaign has been sluggish, yielding just two goals and a highly restrictive expected goals figure of 0.47 per game. Our model leans towards a cautious Iraklis 1908 win here. While confidence in the match result is low, there is a firm projection for fewer than 2.5 goals, and a medium-confidence call that at least one side will fail to score. A speculative forecast suggests Iraklis might be level at the break before edging a 1-0 victory by full-time.