Greece's Super League 1 completed Matchweek 5 as PAOK halted Panetolikos's three-match winning run with a 3-1 away victory, while Olympiakos Piraeus, AEK Athens FC, and Panathinaikos also secured points on their travels. Across the round, the model returned a solid showing on win or draw calls and opening scorers, though split results across total goals tempered the final tally.
How our forecasts did
Total goals proved the most difficult area across the weekend, with three of the seven calls landing. The model struggled to anticipate the attacking outbursts in fixtures expected to stay tight, and also misread a scoreless affair. Half-time and full-time projections also had a challenging round, with three of the seven calls proving accurate.
By contrast, the win or draw calls were the most dependable topic of the round, where six of the seven calls landed. The first team to score calls also held up well, with five of the seven projections correct. In the match result column, four of the seven calls were accurate, as were four of the seven calls for both teams to score. Forecasting exact scorelines is always demanding, but one of the seven calls landed when Olympiakos Piraeus edged past Levadiakos by the predicted single-goal margin.
Results
Atromitos 1-2 Kifisia Kifisia earned their first league victory of the campaign with an away win, leaving Atromitos empty-handed. The model endured a complete miss on this opening fixture, backing an Atromitos win, Atromitos to win or draw, and fewer than 2.5 goals.
Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Iraklis 1908 Aris Thessalonikis were held to a scoreless stalemate by a defensive away side that sat back and absorbed pressure. The call for Aris Thessalonikis to win or draw and the call for at least one side to be kept off the scoresheet both landed, but projections for home goals and an outright home victory fell short.
Levadiakos 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus Olympiakos Piraeus controlled the contest and claimed a narrow 1-0 victory against a Levadiakos side still waiting for their first league goal. The model performed exceptionally here, landing the call for an Olympiakos Piraeus win, Olympiakos Piraeus to win or draw, fewer than 2.5 goals, at least one side to be kept off the scoresheet, Olympiakos Piraeus to score first, and the exact scoreline of Levadiakos 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Volos NFC 1-2 AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC maintained their unbeaten start to the season with a hard-earned 1-2 win away to Volos NFC. Projections for an AEK Athens FC win, AEK Athens FC to win or draw, more than 2.5 goals, AEK Athens FC to score first, and the call for the sides to be level at the break before AEK Athens FC won it all landed.
OFI 2-2 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis grabbed a surprise point in an entertaining 2-2 draw that denied OFI a home win. The model anticipated OFI scoring the opening goal and secured the win or draw call, but missed on total goals after expecting a lower-scoring encounter.
Kalamata 0-1 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos continued their strong early run with a controlled 0-1 victory away to Kalamata. The calls for a Panathinaikos win, Panathinaikos to win or draw, at least one side to be kept off the scoresheet, Panathinaikos to score first, and Panathinaikos ahead at the break and winning it all proved accurate.
Panetolikos 1-3 PAOK PAOK produced an efficient attacking display to record a 1-3 victory and end Panetolikos's three-match winning sequence. The model had a clean sweep across six calls here, correctly projecting a PAOK win, PAOK to win or draw, more than 2.5 goals, both teams to score, PAOK to open the scoring, and PAOK to lead at half-time before winning the match.
What we got wrong
The biggest frustration of the round came at Atromitos, where the model backed the home team to build on their goalscoring output and hold off Kifisia. Instead, Atromitos's defensive vulnerabilities surfaced again, conceding twice to hand Kifisia a breakthrough win and wrecking all seven projections on that fixture.
The model also misjudged the balance in Aris Thessalonikis versus Iraklis 1908. Aris entered the weekend having scored freely in their home outings, and the projection expected them to break down Iraklis's five-man defensive block with room to spare. Instead, Iraklis produced a disciplined rear-guard display that starved the hosts of space, resulting in a goalless draw that undermined the calls for an Aris win and over 2.5 goals.
Matchweek 5 demonstrated the strength of the traditional title contenders on the road, with Olympiakos Piraeus, AEK Athens FC, Panathinaikos, and PAOK all taking three points away from home. While Panetolikos and OFI dropped points, the league table remains tightly contested as the early-season hierarchy begins to settle.
