Greece's Super League 1 concluded Matchweek 6 with six home victories and one staggering upset, as newly arrived Kalamata stunned PAOK 3-1 in Thessaloniki. Aside from that shock defeat on Monday, our forecasting model enjoyed a remarkably sharp round across the league, correctly calling six out of seven winners and nailing the exact scoreline in the Athens derby.
How our forecasts did
The both teams to score topic endured the roughest weekend, with only three of the seven calls landing as multiple fixtures finished in unexpected shutouts or broke open late on. Exact scoreline projections, as usual given their specificity, were hard to match, though one of the seven landed cleanly.
Every other category delivered an excellent showing. Across match result calls, six of the seven graded calls were correct, failing only on PAOK's home collapse. The model matched that return across win or draw, total goals, and first team to score, with six of seven landing in each category. In the half-time and full-time calls, five of the seven projections proved accurate.
Results
Saturday 10 October
AEK Athens FC 3-0 OFI
AEK Athens extended their unbeaten run to six matches with a commanding display, keeping their third consecutive home clean sheet in the league. The model had projected an AEK Athens win, more than 2.5 goals, and at least one team kept scoreless, with all three landing comfortably.
Asteras Tripolis 2-1 Atromitos
Asteras Tripolis secured their first victory of the campaign by edging Atromitos in a tight contest. Our call backed an Asteras Tripolis win, but the model missed on the defensive side, projecting fewer than 2.5 goals and a shutout when both attacks found the net.
Sunday 11 October
Iraklis 1908 2-0 Levadiakos
Levadiakos remained without a league goal this season as Iraklis 1908 stayed compact and took their chances. The model correctly anticipated an Iraklis win, fewer than 2.5 goals, and at least one side being kept off the scoresheet.
Kifisia 2-0 Panetolikos
Kifisia continued their disciplined home defending by shutting out Panetolikos, who dropped a third consecutive away match. The calls for a Kifisia win, under 2.5 goals, and a clean sheet on one side all landed as projected.
Aris Thessalonikis 3-2 Volos NFC
Volos NFC fought hard but could not avoid another defeat, remaining bottom of the division after an open, high-scoring contest. Our model correctly called an Aris win and over 2.5 goals, though Volos striking twice overturned the low-confidence call for a shutout.
Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos
Even without top scorer Ayoub El Kaabi due to a facial injury, Olympiakos halted Panathinaikos's perfect five-game start to the season with a disciplined defensive showing. Our model forecasted this fixture precisely, landing the Olympiakos win, under 2.5 goals, and the exact 1-0 scoreline.
Monday 12 October
PAOK 1-3 Kalamata
In the round's biggest surprise, Kalamata travelled to Toumba and struck three times to dismantle a PAOK side that had won both previous home matches without conceding. The result derailed all our home-leaning calls on the fixture, delivering only on the projection of more than 2.5 goals.
What we got wrong
The lone major blemish of Matchweek 6 was PAOK's Monday collapse against Kalamata. Our model issued firm calls backing a PAOK win, a PAOK opening goal, and a clean sheet for the home side. The reasoning rested on solid baseline numbers: PAOK had scored six goals without reply in their first two home league games, while Kalamata arrived with only one win in five and an unproven away record.
Instead of dominating, PAOK conceded three times to an opponent that had barely averaged a goal per match. Asteras Tripolis also saw goals slip past our projections, turning what was expected to be a low-scoring duel with Atromitos into a three-goal affair.
Matchweek 6 tightened the race near the top of Super League 1, as Olympiakos ended Panathinaikos's flawless start while PAOK failed to take advantage. At the other end, Kalamata's shock away win gives them breathing space, leaving Volos and Levadiakos marooned in search of their first league victories.
