The Süper Lig's Matchweek 4 brought high drama, highlighted by Beşiktaş edging Fenerbahçe in a fierce Istanbul derby and Galatasaray outgunning Başakşehir in a five-goal thriller. For our forecasting model, it was a punishing round in several key categories, with home advantage and form proving difficult to read across the division.
How our forecasts did
This was a challenging weekend for our projections, particularly when it came to calling the correct scores and the overall match volume. Our exact scoreline forecasts suffered the most, with just one of the nine calls proving correct. The total goals and half-time and full-time categories also struggled, returning three correct calls from nine graded fixtures each. Outright match result calls were similarly frustrating, with only four of the nine projections landing.
There was better news elsewhere. The win or draw forecasts and both teams to score calls both saw six of the nine calls prove correct. Our best-performing category of the round was predicting the first team to score, which saw seven of our nine calls hit the mark.
Results
Başakşehir 2-3 Galatasaray The Süper Lig leaders travelled to a Başakşehir side that was yet to lose at home, but the visitors extended their historical dominance in a five-goal encounter. Our forecast for a Galatasaray win was correct, as was our projection that they would score first and lead at the break, though our cautious expectation for a low-scoring game missed the mark completely.
Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Konyaspor In an early-season basement battle, Erzurumspor secured their first victory of the campaign. We had cautiously backed Konyaspor to take the points based on their historical dominance and slightly more threatening attack, but the visitors were shut out, leaving our match result and first team to score forecasts incorrect.
Fenerbahçe 1-2 Beşiktaş The first big Istanbul derby of the season went the way of the visitors, dealing Fenerbahçe a second defeat of the campaign. We anticipated the home crowd might tip this historically even fixture towards Fenerbahçe, but our cautious match result forecast missed. We did correctly project both teams to score and Fenerbahçe to open the scoring.
Çorum FK 3-0 Eyüpspor Two struggling sides met near the foot of the table, and Çorum FK finally found their rhythm, securing their first home points in emphatic style. Our cautious forecast for a Çorum FK win landed, as did our calls for them to score first, lead at half-time, and keep a clean sheet against a low-scoring Eyüpspor side.
Kasımpaşa 2-2 Amed Kasımpaşa's unbeaten start continued, but they were held to a draw by an Amed side that bounced back from previous road struggles. We expected a Kasımpaşa victory, making our match result forecast incorrect, though our call for the hosts to score first was accurate.
Kocaelispor 1-0 Samsunspor Kocaelispor maintained their strong home form with another clean sheet and victory. Our model read this fixture perfectly, correctly forecasting a Kocaelispor win, a low-scoring affair, the hosts to score first, and a clean sheet. Crucially, it also landed our only exact scoreline success of the round, correctly projecting the 1-0 outcome.
Trabzonspor 5-0 Gençlerbirliği S.K. Trabzonspor put their patchy early-season form firmly behind them, ruthlessly dismantling an unbeaten Gençlerbirliği side. Our forecast for a Trabzonspor victory was correct, accurately reading that the visitors' underlying numbers showed they had been heavily outshot on their travels. However, our cautious projection for a tight, low-scoring match was blown away by the home side's five goals.
Göztepe 2-4 Gaziantep FK Göztepe remain rooted to the bottom of the table after their leaky defence was exposed once again in a high-scoring defeat. We had expected the hosts to ignite their season with a home win, making our match result forecast incorrect. We did, however, correctly project that both teams would score and that the match would feature plenty of goals.
Rizespor 0-1 Alanyaspor Despite impressive underlying defensive numbers, Rizespor were undone at home by a winless Alanyaspor side. Our match result forecast for a home win was incorrect. We correctly projected a low-scoring game, and our call for Rizespor to score first was also graded correct.
What we got wrong
The model's biggest blind spots this week came from placing too much weight on historical dominance and home advantage in tight fixtures. In the Istanbul derby, Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş arrived separated only by goal difference. Our model backed Fenerbahçe to bounce back from their previous defeat and use their home crowd to tip the balance, but Beşiktaş proved resilient enough to take all three points.
Similarly, we expected Konyaspor to extend their perfect six-match historical streak against Erzurumspor. While both sides were searching for a first win, we judged Konyaspor to have a marginally more threatening attack. Instead, they were shut out completely, continuing a frustrating round for our outright match result projections. Rizespor's home defeat to Alanyaspor was another misread, with the model trusting Rizespor's stellar defensive underlying numbers to finally deliver a clean sheet, only for the visitors to snatch the victory.
Matchweek 4 reshapes the early Süper Lig narrative, with Galatasaray reasserting their attacking firepower at the top and Beşiktaş striking a significant blow in the derby. At the bottom, Erzurumspor and Çorum FK have much-needed lifelines, while Göztepe remain stranded and searching for answers.
