Matchweek 5 of the 2026 Süper Lig season delivered a string of heavy away victories, dramatic clean sheets, and title contenders dropping points. It was a testing round for our forecasting model, which found itself on the wrong side of several unpredictable shifts in form and struggled to read the weekend's most significant upsets.
How our forecasts did
It was a difficult weekend for our projections, particularly when it came to the precise details of the matches. The exact scoreline category suffered the most, failing to land a single correct call from nine graded fixtures. The match result forecasts also struggled, with only four of the nine calls proving correct as the league threw up multiple surprises.
The model performed best in the win or draw category, where six of the nine calls were accurate. Elsewhere, five of the nine total goals projections landed, as did five of the nine both teams to score calls. The first team to score category returned four correct calls from nine, while just two of the nine half-time and full-time forecasts were right.
Results
Beşiktaş 3-0 Erzurumspor FK The round opened as expected. The model firmly backed a Beşiktaş win, noting their average of 3.5 goals per game at home and strong defensive record. The forecast correctly called the match result, the home side to score first, and for Beşiktaş to be leading at the break and at full-time.
Eyüpspor 0-2 Rizespor Our model correctly made a cautious call for a Rizespor win, leaning on the visitors' flawless away record and superior underlying numbers against an Eyüpspor side that had managed just two goals in four league matches.
Samsunspor 1-5 Çorum FK A spectacular miss for our projections. The model called a Samsunspor win and for the hosts to score first, completely failing to anticipate newly-promoted Çorum FK scoring five times on the road.
Alanyaspor 2-2 Göztepe The model anticipated an Alanyaspor victory, trusting their 3-4-3 defensive organisation, but Göztepe’s spirited attack delivered exactly as they had in every other away outing to secure a point.
Konyaspor 1-0 Trabzonspor Another stumble for the forecasts. The model projected a Trabzonspor victory, but Konyaspor secured a narrow win.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1-2 Kasımpaşa The model incorrectly backed a Gençlerbirliği win based on their consistent home scoring form. While the hosts did strike first—as the model accurately projected—unbeaten Kasımpaşa turned the match around to take all three points.
Amed 5-0 Başakşehir Our model correctly called an Amed win and a total goals projection of more than 2.5. Amed maintained their perfect home record, exploiting a Başakşehir side that has been leaking goals on their travels.
Galatasaray 1-0 Kocaelispor The forecast correctly backed a Galatasaray win and for the hosts to score the opening goal. Despite missing Victor Osimhen, the hosts relied on their supporting cast in a 4-2-3-1 to secure the points, though the single goal meant our call for more than 2.5 total goals missed the mark.
Gaziantep FK 0-0 Fenerbahçe The round closed with a scoreless draw that defied our model's firm projection of a Fenerbahçe victory, leaving the match result, total goals, and both teams to score forecasts all incorrect.
What we got wrong
The most glaring error of the weekend was undoubtedly at Samsunspor. The model looked at a Çorum FK side that was conceding four goals per away game—culminating in a recent 6-2 thrashing at Fenerbahçe—and expected them to be the ideal opponents for Samsunspor to secure their first home win. Instead, the visitors completely rewrote their away form book with a 5-1 demolition that our numbers did not see coming.
Konyaspor's 1-0 win over Trabzonspor also exposed a blind spot in the projections. Heading into the fixture, Konyaspor sat bottom of the table with zero points, struggling to create chances and leaking two goals per game. Trabzonspor arrived in the top four with nine goals scored. While the model did note Trabzonspor's patchy away record, it placed too much weight on their superior league position, resulting in a clean sweep of missed calls for the match result, both teams to score, and the exact scoreline.
Finally, the model placed too much faith in historical dominance when assessing Gaziantep FK against Fenerbahçe. Fenerbahçe had won the last ten meetings between the sides, often by emphatic margins. Even with top scorer Marco Asensio missing out through a muscle injury and a stuttering start that left the visitors 12th in the table, the forecast maintained a firm confidence in an away win. Gaziantep, despite having not won at home all season, held firm to force a 0-0 draw that dismantled every major forecast for the fixture.
This was a weekend that punished reliance on the early-season form book, with struggling home sides finding resilience and leaky away teams suddenly discovering clinical edges.
