Major League Soccer Matchweek 26 delivered a combative round of action, punctuated by New York Red Bulls grinding out a 1-0 victory in the Hudson River derby and San Diego holding Inter Miami to a 2-2 draw. For our forecasting model, it proved a demanding weekend where broader game reads held firm, but match result calls struggled across a slate filled with high-scoring draws and unexpected road wins.
How our forecasts did
The match result calls suffered the poorest run of the weekend, with only six of the fifteen landing as several favourites failed to take maximum points at home. Half-time and full-time calls also found little traction, converting five of fifteen, while exact scoreline projections finished with just one correct score from fifteen matches. Both teams to score landed seven of fifteen, caught out by unexpected shutouts in Portland, Montreal, and Dallas.
By contrast, the win or draw calls performed best across the slate, getting twelve of fifteen correct by absorbing the draws that tripped up outright winner forecasts. The total goals projections also performed well, hitting on ten of the fifteen fixtures as attacking play dominated the weekend schedule. First team to score calls held steady, finishing with eight correct from fifteen.
Results
New York City FC 0-1 New York Red Bulls opened the round on Friday, where our model missed across the board after projecting a home victory and more than two goals; the visiting defence instead held firm to claim derby bragging rights.
San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Los Angeles FC provided four goals, validating our projections for both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals, though the draw foiled the call for an away win.
CF Montreal 0-2 Columbus Crew saw the visitors collect all three points despite missing four regular starters, defying our forecast of a home victory and keeping Montreal off the scoresheet entirely.
New England Revolution 4-2 Orlando City SC delivered an emphatic performance for the model, which correctly called the home win, both teams to score, over 2.5 goals, the first team to score, and New England leading at both intervals.
DC United 1-2 Charlotte produced the model's single exact scoreline success of the round, alongside correct calls for an away win, both teams to score, over 2.5 goals, Charlotte scoring first, and leading from the break.
Minnesota United FC 2-3 Los Angeles Galaxy saw the home side's defensive absences tell, missing the call for a home result but landing the forecast of more than 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
Houston Dynamo 2-2 FC Cincinnati saw the visitors snap their scoring drought on the road, denying the model's call for a home win and clean sheet, though the win or draw forecast held.
Sporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia Union turned into a seven-goal thriller that justified our firm projection for an away win and over 2.5 goals against a depleted home back line.
FC Dallas 0-0 Austin proved completely contrary to expectations, missing calls for goals and a home win as P. Musa and the league's top-scoring attack were held scoreless.
St. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FC followed our projections closely, as the hosts extended their unbeaten run to sixteen matches with our calls for a home win, over 2.5 goals, and St. Louis scoring first all landing.
Colorado Rapids 3-3 Seattle Sounders broke a six-match home shutout streak for the hosts, turning into an open shootout that wiped out our projection for fewer than 2.5 goals.
Real Salt Lake 0-3 Vancouver Whitecaps saw Brian White and the conference leaders dominate a patched-up home side, securing correct calls for an away win, over 2.5 goals, and Vancouver leading at half-time and full-time.
Nashville SC 3-0 Chicago Fire extended the home side's winning run at home to eight matches, landing calls for a home win, over 2.5 goals, and Nashville scoring first against an injury-hit Chicago backline.
Portland Timbers 0-1 Atlanta United FC went against the data, failing to clear the total goals forecast after Portland's attack, led by Kelsy, was blanked at home.
Inter Miami 2-2 San Diego closed out the matchweek with late drama, where despite San Diego missing Marcus Ingvartsen, the visitors earned a point to deny our firm call for a Miami win while landing over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.
What we got wrong
The round's most significant forecasting failure came in the Hudson River derby, where our model heavily favoured New York City FC based on their home scoring rate of two goals per game and the Red Bulls' defensive struggles away from home. Instead, the match tightened into a battle of attrition where New York City FC failed to register a goal, breaking down all seven published calls for that fixture.
The model was also badly undone in Dallas and Colorado. In Texas, FC Dallas had scored freely all season against an Austin defence that had conceded 32 goals in 13 away outings without a clean sheet, yet the contest finished goalless. In Colorado, the model trusted a defence that had kept six consecutive home clean sheets against a Seattle attack missing key contributors, only to see the two sides trade six goals in a wild 3-3 draw.
Summary
Matchweek 26 tightened the standings across both conferences, showing that defensive records count for little in derby fixtures and regional rivalries. Philadelphia and Vancouver reinforced their positions near the top of the table, while dropped home points for New York City FC and Inter Miami opened the door for the chasing pack.
