St. Louis City vs Toronto FC: 15-Game Unbeaten Run
Updated
St. Louis City host Toronto FC in Major League Soccer on Sunday, 20 September 2026 at CITYPARK in St. Louis, Missouri. The home team come in unbeaten in their last 15 league fixtures, having mounted a steady climb up the Western Conference standings.
St. Louis City pairing high scoring with solid home form
St. Louis City sit fifth in the Western Conference with 41 points from 25 games, scoring 42 goals and conceding 35. Across their last five matches, they have taken three wins and two draws, most recently defeating Minnesota United FC 4-2 at home on 13 September 2026. Prior to that, they drew 2-2 away to Portland Timbers, won 3-1 at Vancouver Whitecaps, drew 3-3 at home with FC Dallas, and beat Houston Dynamo 2-1 on 23 August 2026. At CITYPARK, they hold a record of seven wins, three draws, and two losses from 12 league matches, with 25 goals scored to 16 conceded. Over their last five games with chance data, they generated 1.53 expected goals per game while allowing 0.96. Top scorer Simon Becher leads the attack with seven goals in all competitions, though Celio Pompeu and K. Hiebert are ruled out through injury, with P. Ault listed as doubtful.
Toronto FC hit road after Orlando defeat
Toronto FC travel after a 3-0 away loss against Orlando City SC on 12 September 2026. That result left them 12th in the Eastern Conference with 29 points from 25 matches, having scored 38 and conceded 46. Their away form has yielded two wins, three draws, and six defeats in 11 road trips, scoring nine goals and giving up 18. Across their last five matches with chance metrics, they have created 1.36 expected goals per match while conceding 1.41. Top scorer Josh Sargent has seven goals across all competitions this season, but the visitors must manage multiple squad absences, with D. Mihailovic, J. Osorio, and N. Palacio out injured, and L. Stefanovic doubtful.
Our model firmly expects a St. Louis City win
Our forecasting model firmly expects a St. Louis City win. St. Louis City enter with seven victories from 12 home matches and an expected-goals differential of +0.57 per game across their last five fixtures, whereas Toronto FC have suffered six defeats in 11 away outings and concede more expected goals than they create.
