Nashville SC vs Toronto FC

Nashville SC face Toronto FC in Major League Soccer on Sunday, 27 September 2026, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, where the Eastern Conference leaders put their near-flawless home form on the line. Nashville sit top of the standings on 57 points with a plus-32 goal difference, having won 12 of their 13 matches as hosts in this campaign.

Nashville hold 12 wins from 13 home matches

Nashville SC have constructed their lead in the East on domestic authority, winning 12 and drawing one of their 13 home fixtures while outscoring opponents 39 to 12. Their last outing at home was a 3-0 victory against Chicago Fire on 20 September 2026, which followed a 2-2 away draw with Inter Miami. Sam Surridge leads their attack with 16 goals across all competitions this season, spearheading a unit that creates 1.81 expected goals per game over their last five matches while allowing 1.43.

The home side must shuffle their lineup because of international selections. A. Qasem, B. Schwake, P. Yazbek, and X. Valdez are all away on national team duty, while W. Madrigal is doubtful through injury. Even with those absences, Nashville enter the contest with only one loss in their past five games: a 2-1 defeat against Toronto FC on 9 September 2026.

Toronto arrive depleted by seven absences

Toronto FC sit 12th in the conference with 29 points and 49 goals conceded through 26 matches. Their travel form shows two wins, three draws, and seven losses across 12 road fixtures, scoring 10 times and conceding 21. They arrive following consecutive away losses, falling 3-0 at Orlando City SC on 12 September and 3-1 at St. Louis City on 20 September.

Absences hit the visitors heavily across multiple lines. W. Zimmerman serves a suspension, while D. Mihailovic and N. Palacio remain sidelined with injuries. B. Kuscevic, M. Cimermancic, R. Chukwu, and R. Laryea are all away on international duty. Josh Sargent is Toronto's top scorer with seven goals in all competitions, but the team's chance metrics show an expected goals deficit over their last five fixtures, generating 1.47 while conceding 1.55.

Our model firmly expects a Nashville SC win

Our forecasting model firmly expects a Nashville SC win. The call reflects Nashville's record of 12 wins from 13 home games, Sam Surridge's 16-goal haul, and Toronto's struggle on the road, where the visitors have won just twice in 12 league trips while missing seven players through duty, suspension, and injury.