New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City: Seven Out

New York Red BullsYOR

Major League Soccer

0–3

Full Time

HT 0–1

Sports Illustrated Stadium

Harrison, New Jersey

St. Louis City

Rafael Navarro Leal 5'
Simon Becher 87'
Tomas Ostrak 90+1'

AI ForecastsGraded

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New York Red Bulls host St. Louis City missing four starters, including top scorer J. Hall, which leaves a depleted side against one of the league's hottest teams. St. Louis arrives on a 16-match unbeaten run, averaging over two goals per game while the Red Bulls have leaked 1.8 goals per match at home and kept just one clean sheet. With the visitors in such strong form and the hosts severely weakened, it is hard to see past an away victory in a contest that should deliver goals.

Match ResultAway Win48%

St. Louis City's 16-game unbeaten run, combined with New York missing four starters including their top scorer, gives the visitors a clear advantage. The Red Bulls have lost three of their last five at home and conceded heavily, making an away win the strongest outcome.

Two-Outcome ResultHome or Away76%

The hosts are severely weakened and have won just once in their last five home games, while St. Louis are unbeaten in their last 16 overall, so a win or draw in favour of the visitors looks the safest call.

Total Goals3 or more goals67%

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring contests recently, with St. Louis posting over 2.5 goals in 70% of their last ten and New York keeping no clean sheets at home, suggesting the game will go past two goals.

High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →

New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City: Seven Out

Published Sat 26 Sept

New York Red Bulls face St. Louis City in Major League Soccer on Saturday, 26 September 2026 at Sports Illustrated Stadium in Harrison, New Jersey, with seven home players sidelined by international duty.

New York Red Bulls stripped of Hall and six internationals

The hosts enter the match missing a significant portion of their starting lineup. Top scorer Julian Hall, who has 10 goals in all competitions and struck the winning goal against New York City FC on 18 September, is away on international duty. Midfielder Ronald Donkor, who scored the 89th-minute winner against Columbus Crew on 12 September, is also away on national team duty alongside Adri Mehmeti, D. Ruiz, M. Jimenez, O. Valencia, and R. Mosquera. In addition, A. Marcucci, J. Che, and J. Marshall-Rutty are doubtful through injury.

New York Red Bulls sit 8th in the Eastern Conference with 33 points from 26 matches. While they have recorded successive 1-0 away victories over Columbus Crew and New York City FC, their form at Sports Illustrated Stadium has been fragile. In 12 home league matches, the Red Bulls have won 4, drawn 3, and lost 5, conceding 23 goals while scoring 18.

St. Louis City arrive on a five-match unbeaten run

St. Louis City hold 3rd place in the Western Conference with 44 points and a +9 goal difference from 26 matches. They travel east having gone five games without defeat, scoring 15 goals across that sequence. Their recent run includes a 3-1 home win over Toronto FC on 20 September, a 4-2 victory against Minnesota United FC on 13 September, and a 3-1 away win at Vancouver Whitecaps on 6 September.

Simon Becher leads St. Louis City in scoring with 8 goals across all competitions. The visitors have their own absences to handle, with forward D. Downs called up for international duty, Celio Pompeu and K. Hiebert out through injury, and B. McSorley and P. Ault listed as doubtful.

Our model expects a St. Louis City win

Our model expects a St. Louis City win, pointing to clear separation in recent chance quality and available personnel. Over their last five matches with available chance data, St. Louis City have generated 1.80 expected goals per game while allowing only 0.95. Conversely, New York Red Bulls have created 1.19 expected goals per game and surrendered 1.87.

With New York deprived of their leading scorer and six other senior players to international call-ups, St. Louis City hold the decisive advantage in attacking continuity.

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
8	New York Red Bulls	29	-15	36
2	St. Louis City	29	16	51

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