Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia

Atletico Paranaense host Bahia in Serie A Matchweek 28 on Sunday, 20 September 2026 at Arena da Baixada in Curitiba, Paraná, with both clubs level on 46 points in third and fourth place.

Viveros suspended as Atletico Paranaense concede ten in three games

Atletico Paranaense enter the match without their leading goalscorer, Kevin Viveros, who has scored 18 goals in all competitions this season and is serving a suspension alongside Joao Cruz. Claudinho and Leo Derik also miss out through injury. The home side have won only one of their last five matches, a 3-2 victory at Botafogo on 24 August 2026, and have conceded ten goals across their past three fixtures: drawing 3-3 at Coritiba on 12 September, losing 1-3 at Cruzeiro on 6 September, and drawing 3-3 with Fluminense on 30 August. Over their last five games with chance data, they have created 1.57 expected goals per match while conceding 1.78.

Bahia arrive on a four-match winning streak

Bahia have collected four consecutive league victories, beating Remo 2-1 on 14 September 2026, RB Bragantino 3-2 on 5 September, Internacional 3-2 on 30 August, and Vitoria 2-0 on 23 August. That sequence leaves them fourth in Serie A with 42 goals scored and 33 conceded from 27 fixtures, separated from third-placed Atletico Paranaense only by a goal difference of plus-nine to plus-ten. Over their last five matches with chance data, Bahia have generated 2.54 expected goals a game while allowing 1.00. Top scorer Luciano Juba has nine goals this season across all competitions. For this trip, C. Olivera is suspended, Leo Vieira is injured, and M. Sanabria is doubtful after not being named in the squad. Bahia also won the reverse fixture 3-0 on 1 April 2026.

Our model leans narrowly towards an Atletico Paranaense win

Our model leans narrowly towards an Atletico Paranaense win, giving the edge to the hosts despite Bahia's four-game winning streak and April's 3-0 head-to-head result. That call rests heavily on Atletico Paranaense's record at Arena da Baixada, where they have lost once in 13 Serie A fixtures, winning eight, drawing four, and allowing only ten goals. Bahia have claimed six wins from 13 away trips in the league, but overcoming the home side's domestic ground record will test their recent run of form, even with Viveros absent from the hosts' frontline.