Atletico Paranaense vs Atlético Mineiro: Nine Home Wins
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Atletico Paranaense host Atlético Mineiro in Serie A on Thursday, 8 October 2026 at Arena da Baixada in Curitiba, Paraná. The hosts enter Matchweek 29 sitting third in the table with nine wins from 14 home league matches.
Atletico Paranaense rely on home form and Kevin Viveros
Atletico Paranaense hold third place with 49 points from 28 games, built largely on their home record of nine victories, four draws, and one defeat with 25 goals scored and 11 conceded. Their recent league fixtures have produced high scorelines, including a 2-1 win over Bahia on 20 September, a 3-3 draw with Coritiba on 12 September, and a 3-3 draw against Fluminense on 30 August. Kevin Viveros leads the attack with 18 goals in all competitions this season. However, chance creation data over their last five outings shows 1.32 expected goals generated per match against 1.85 allowed. They must also manage four absences: Claudinho and Gastón Benavídez are sidelined with injuries, while Juan Aguirre and Odair Hellmann are out through suspension.
Atlético Mineiro contend with eight away defeats and five injuries
Atlético Mineiro occupy seventh place with 43 points from 28 matches, trailing the hosts by six points. Their away record has yielded four wins, two draws, and eight defeats in 14 league fixtures, scoring 13 goals and conceding 16. Their recent league form includes a 1-0 home victory against RB Bragantino on 3 October and a 3-1 win over Fluminense on 12 September, but their previous away trip ended in a 2-0 loss at Sao Paulo on 5 September. Five players are absent through injury: goalkeeper Everson, Gustavo Scarpa, Mateo Cassierra, Ruan, and Vitor Hugo. Tomás Cuello stands as their top scorer this season with five goals in all competitions. Across their last five games with chance data, Atlético Mineiro produced 1.34 expected goals per game while allowing 1.08.
Our model leans narrowly towards an Atletico Paranaense win
Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards an Atletico Paranaense win. Atletico Paranaense have won nine of 14 home fixtures in Serie A and hold the goalscoring output of Kevin Viveros, who has 18 goals this season. In contrast, Atlético Mineiro have dropped eight matches away from home and travel to Curitiba without five injured players, although the visitors won the previous meeting between the two clubs 2-1 on 5 April 2026.
