Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin: Hosts Target Third Home Win
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Aldosivi face Sarmiento Junin in Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday 9 October 2026 at José María Minella in Mar del Plata, with the visitors arriving having won the last two meetings between the sides by 2-0 scorelines.
Aldosivi build on consecutive home victories
Aldosivi sit 14th of 15 in Clausura Group B with eight points from 11 matches, having conceded 17 goals and scored 12. Their away form has dragged them down, culminating in a 1-0 defeat at Huracan on 4 October and a 4-3 loss at Independiente Rivadavia on 12 September. At José María Minella, however, they have taken six points from their last two fixtures, defeating Banfield 3-1 on 5 September and Atletico Tucuman 1-0 on 21 September.
Defensive reshuffling is required for this fixture. Joaquín Pombo is out through suspension, while Alan Sosa and Néstor Breitenbruch are absent through injury. Aldosivi have allowed an average of 1.70 expected goals across their last five matches with chance data, while generating 1.17 expected goals. Top scorer Andrés Vombergar, who has four goals in all competitions, leads their attack.
Junior Marabel leads Sarmiento Junin attack
Sarmiento Junin sit seventh in Group B with 16 points from 10 games, scoring 17 goals and allowing 16. Striker Junior Marabel has provided the primary finishing threat, scoring 13 goals across all competitions this season. Sarmiento enter this match after a 3-1 away loss to Racing Club on 19 September and a 1-1 draw at home to Belgrano Cordoba on 13 September.
Their away record in the competition shows two wins and three defeats from five outings, with eight goals scored and 11 conceded. Carlos Villalba and Joel Godoy remain unavailable with injuries, while Lucas Suárez is doubtful due to an injury problem. In underlying metrics, Sarmiento have generated 1.21 expected goals per match over their last five games with chance tracking while conceding 1.53 expected goals.
Our model leans narrowly towards an Aldosivi win
Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards an Aldosivi win. Aldosivi have taken two consecutive victories at their home ground, while Sarmiento Junin have dropped two of their previous three road matches, conceding four at Union Santa Fe and three at Racing Club. Sarmiento hold recent head-to-head control after winning 2-0 in both March 2026 and September 2025, but Aldosivi's recent solidity in Mar del Plata shapes the model's call.
