Gimnasia L.P. vs Atletico Tucuman

Gimnasia L.P. host Atletico Tucuman in Clausura Matchweek 12 of the Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday, 9 October 2026, at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires, where the visitors arrive without leading scorer Leandro Díaz.

Atletico Tucuman lose top scorer Leandro Díaz to injury

Atletico Tucuman enter this fixture missing five players through injury: Leandro Díaz, Gastón Suso, Kevin Ortíz, Martín Benítez, and Pedro Canelo. The absence of Díaz removes their primary attacking outlet; the forward shares the match's highest individual tally with seven goals in all competitions this season. His absence coincides with a slump in results. Atletico Tucuman have lost three consecutive league matches, falling 1-2 to River Plate on 12 September 2026, 0-1 at Aldosivi on 21 September 2026, and 2-3 at home to Barracas Central on 3 October 2026. Over their last five games with chance data, they have generated 1.01 expected goals per match while conceding 1.08.

Gimnasia L.P. average 2.01 expected goals across five unbeaten games

Gimnasia L.P. sit sixth in Clausura Group B with 18 points from 11 matches, five points above tenth-placed Atletico Tucuman. They are on a five-match unbeaten run, following consecutive 2-1 victories over Rosario Central on 29 August 2026 and Tigre on 5 September 2026 with three straight draws: 1-1 at Argentinos Juniors on 13 September 2026, 2-2 against Banfield on 19 September 2026, and 1-1 at Independiente Rivadavia on 3 October 2026. Over their last five matches with data, Gimnasia L.P. produced 2.01 expected goals per game while allowing only 0.91. Top scorer Marcelo Torres has matched Díaz with seven goals in all competitions and remains available, although the home side must cope without injured trio Germán Conti, Gonzalo Errecalde, and Jeremías Merlo. At Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, Gimnasia L.P. have taken three wins and one draw from five league games, scoring nine and conceding six.

Our model expects a Gimnasia L.P. win

Our model expects a Gimnasia L.P. win, assigning medium confidence to the home victory. Gimnasia L.P. boast superior chance creation metrics, generating more than double the expected goals per game that Atletico Tucuman manage, and remain unbeaten in five matches. Atletico Tucuman have won three of their five away fixtures in the competition, conceding only twice on their travels, but three straight defeats and the loss of Díaz weaken their threat. In head-to-head meetings, each of the last four games between the clubs ended in a 1-0 scoreline, with Gimnasia L.P. winning three of them, including a 1-0 home victory on 1 September 2025.