Clausura Matchweek 12 delivered an unpredictable slate across Argentina, headlined by Rosario Central's emphatic 5-0 dismantling of Independiente Rivadavia and several unexpected away victories. Across the round's 15 fixtures, our forecasting model had a difficult time predicting straight winners, landing just four of its 12 graded match result calls while performing substantially better on wider selections.
How our forecasts did
The model struggled badly on match results. Only four of the 12 match result calls landed, as home defeats for Aldosivi, Tigre, and Racing Club disrupted outright expectations. Exact scoreline projections and half-time and full-time calls also found little joy, with each category managing only two correct calls from 12 graded.
By contrast, the win or draw calls stood out as the round's strongest category, with eight of the 12 calls landing. Goals projections were steady: total goals saw seven of 12 calls land, leaning successfully into the league's characteristic defensive posture. Both teams to score and first team to score each produced an even split, with six correct calls from 12 graded.
Results
Sarmiento Junin opened the action with a 3-1 away win at Aldosivi, immediately defying the model's low-confidence call for an Aldosivi home win and an expected low-scoring affair.
Gimnasia L.P. and Atletico Tucuman finished 1-1, which foiled the home win projection but validated the medium-confidence calls for Gimnasia to win or draw and for fewer than 2.5 goals in the match.
Group leaders Instituto Cordoba were held to a 2-2 draw by Boca Juniors; Boca were projected to claim an away win, but the call for Boca to win or draw landed as both attacks broke through repeatedly.
Defensa y Justicia secured a 2-0 away victory at Union Santa Fe in a fixture that carried no published model forecasts.
Barracas Central collected a 2-0 home victory against Huracan, where the model's call for a draw missed, though high-confidence projections for fewer than 2.5 goals and at least one clean sheet landed cleanly.
Central Cordoba de Santiago and Estudiantes L.P. played out an eventful 2-2 draw, missing the projection for an Estudiantes away win and the call for under 2.5 goals, but validating the call for Estudiantes to win or draw alongside the half-time and full-time call of level at the break and points shared.
Banfield produced a 2-1 away win at Tigre, running completely against the model, which had backed Tigre across every primary category.
River Plate ground out a 1-0 home victory against Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto in a match published without model forecasts.
San Lorenzo edged Deportivo Riestra 1-0, delivering an exceptional return for the model by landing the outright win, the win or draw, under 2.5 goals, a clean sheet, first goalscorer, and the exact 1-0 scoreline.
Platense held league leaders Argentinos Juniors to a 1-1 draw; while the call for an away win missed, the calls for Argentinos to win or draw and fewer than 2.5 goals both landed.
Rosario Central ran riot in a 5-0 win over Independiente Rivadavia, easily fulfilling calls for a home win, win or draw, and first goal, though the avalanche of scoring shattered the projection of fewer than 2.5 goals.
Belgrano Cordoba took all three points with a 2-0 away victory over Racing Club, undoing the model's call for a home win while confirming calls for under 2.5 goals and at least one team kept off the scoresheet.
Talleres Cordoba and Independiente played out a 0-0 stalemate in a match without published model projections.
Lanus earned a 2-0 home win over Velez Sarsfield, rewarding low-confidence calls for a Lanus victory, Lanus to win or draw, under 2.5 goals, and a clean sheet.
Gimnasia de Mendoza closed the round with a 1-0 win against Newells Old Boys, mirroring the San Lorenzo fixture by landing almost the entire card, including the match result, win or draw, under 2.5 goals, clean sheet, first goal, and the exact 1-0 scoreline.
What we got wrong
The model's sharpest misreads came in matches where home sides were backed on the strength of solid home records despite underlying red flags. At Aldosivi, the model projected a low-scoring home victory on the premise of a stubborn defensive baseline, underestimating how severely three absent starters would weaken the back line against Sarmiento Junin.
A similar blind spot occurred in Tigre's 2-1 loss to Banfield. The model leaned into Tigre's historical defensive resilience at home and Banfield's poor away record, yet Tigre entered on a four-match losing streak and were missing top scorer Mauro Méndez. Without Méndez to lead the line, Tigre lacked the composure to protect home territory.
Finally, backing Racing Club at home against Belgrano Cordoba proved overly optimistic. The model failed to account for the instability of Racing's managerial change, with Sebastián Romero only twelve days into the post, while underestimating a Belgrano side that arrived on a five-match unbeaten run and with clean sheets in half of their previous ten matches.
Clausura Matchweek 12 underlined that defensive stability and tactical continuity remain the defining factors across the division, while depleted sides relying purely on home soil continue to be exposed.
