Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate: Marabel Leads Hosts

Sarmiento JuninSAR

Julián Contrera 15'

Liga Profesional Argentina

1–1

Full Time

HT 1–0

Estadio Eva Peron

Junin

River PlateRIV

Gonzalo Montiel 71'

AI ForecastsGraded

River Plate travel to Junin as clear favourites on pedigree, with a far deeper squad and a side that has won four of its last five. Their recent chance creation has been excellent, with heavy possession, plenty of clear openings and very little conceded, while Sarmiento have…

Match ResultAway Win55%

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Match Stats

Top Stats

1.24xG1.78

27%Possession73%

11 (4)Shots (on target)22 (8)

2Big Chances Created4

Attacking Play

1.60xG on Target1.41

0.60Expected Assists (xA)1.90

39Final Third Entries76

26Penalty Area Entries42

Possession & Passing

187 · 52%Passes (accuracy)515 · 85%

5Corners9

25Poss. Won — Def 3rd17

12Poss. Won — Mid 3rd14

Duels & Pressing

49 (42%)Duels Won67 (58%)

13 (45%)Aerial Duels Won16 (55%)

51Ball Recoveries48

12.4PPDA (Pressing)4.7

Defending & Discipline

7Saves3

20Fouls8

+0.41Goals Prevented+0.60

Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate: Marabel Leads Hosts

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
4	Sarmiento Junin	12	3	20
9	River Plate	12	2	17

Published Wed 14 Oct

Sarmiento Junin face River Plate in Liga Profesional Argentina Clausura Matchweek 11 on Wednesday, 14 October 2026, at Estadio Eva Peron in Junin. Sarmiento sit fourth in Clausura - Group B with 19 points from 11 matches, three points ahead of ninth-placed River Plate.

Junior Marabel leads Sarmiento Junin into fourth place

Junior Marabel has scored 14 goals across all competitions this season for Sarmiento Junin. The home side enter this fixture following a 3-1 away win against Aldosivi on 9 October 2026. Across five home matches in this competition, Sarmiento have collected three wins, one draw, and one defeat, scoring nine goals and conceding five. Two players are unavailable, with Carlos Villalba and Joel Godoy ruled out through injury. Over their last five games with chance data, Sarmiento created 1.24 expected goals per match while conceding 1.36.

River Plate limit opponents to 0.66 expected goals

River Plate travel to Junin having defeated Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 1-0 on 11 October 2026, following a 1-2 home defeat against Huracan on 19 September 2026. In four away fixtures in this competition, River Plate have won two and lost two, scoring five goals and conceding five. Their defensive structure remains effective: over their last five matches with chance data, River Plate have generated 1.91 expected goals per game while allowing only 0.66. Top scorer Sebastián Driussi has six goals in all competitions this season. The squad travels without Agustín Ruberto and Juan Carlos Portillo, who are both sidelined with injuries.

River Plate won three of the past five meetings

River Plate have won three of the last five meetings between the sides, including a 2-0 victory on 15 March 2026 and a 1-0 win on 28 July 2024. Their previous trip to Estadio Eva Peron produced a 2-0 victory on 20 March 2023, alongside a 1-1 draw on 5 April 2025. Sarmiento's lone success in the sequence came on 12 October 2025 in a 1-0 away victory.

Our model expects a River Plate win

Our model expects a River Plate win, carrying medium confidence. River Plate hold a substantial advantage in chance quality, averaging 1.91 expected goals created to 0.66 conceded across their last five matches compared to Sarmiento's 1.24 created and 1.36 allowed. Sarmiento counter with home form that has yielded 10 points from five fixtures and the finishing of 14-goal striker Junior Marabel.

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Clausura · Group B