Rosario Central vs Independ. Rivadavia

Rosario Central face Independ. Rivadavia in Clausura Matchweek 12 of the Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, 11 October 2026 at the 41,654-capacity Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe, separated by a single point in the table.

One point separates two Clausura Group B contenders

Rosario Central sit fourth in Clausura Group B with 19 points from 11 matches, holding a plus-three goal difference after scoring 12 and conceding nine. They enter this fixture unbeaten in four league games following a 1-1 draw at Banfield on 6 October 2026, 1-0 victories over Argentinos Juniors and Tigre, and a 1-1 derby draw against Newells Old Boys on 6 September 2026. At Estadio Gigante de Arroyito, the home side has collected two wins, two draws, and one loss from five matches, scoring five and conceding four.

Independ. Rivadavia follow closely in seventh place with 18 points from 11 games, scoring 15 and conceding 14. Their recent run includes three matches without defeat: a 1-1 home draw against Gimnasia L.P. on 3 October 2026, a 1-0 away win at Barracas Central, and a 4-3 victory over Aldosivi. Away from home in this competition, however, Independ. Rivadavia have struggled for output, recording one win, two draws, and three defeats from six matches while scoring three goals and conceding seven.

Di María and Arce lead the scoring charts

Both teams rely on primary attacking outlets. Ángel Di María leads Rosario Central with eight goals in all competitions this season. His side has maintained low-margin results, averaging 0.94 expected goals created and 0.85 allowed across their last five matches with data.

Independ. Rivadavia counter with Alex Arce, who has scored nine goals in all competitions. The visitors generate higher volume at both ends of the pitch, creating 1.91 expected goals per game while allowing 1.34 over their last five tracked matches. Head-to-head history favours Independ. Rivadavia, who won the last meeting 2-0 on 23 March 2026 following a 1-1 draw on 5 November 2024.

Four Rosario Central absences test squad depth

Rosario Central must reshape their squad without four injured players: Alan Rodríguez, Axel Werner, Kevin Gutiérrez, and Pol Fernández.

Independ. Rivadavia travel with their own selection issues. Ezequiel Bonifacio and Maximiliano Salas are ruled out through injury, while defender Luciano Gómez remains doubtful.

Our model expects a Rosario Central win

Our forecasting model expects a Rosario Central win. The projection weighs Rosario Central's steady home record of five goals allowed in five games against Independ. Rivadavia's scoring struggles on the road, where the visitors have scored three goals across six away matches.