Lille vs Le Havre

Lille host Le Havre in Ligue 1 on Saturday, 10 October 2026 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Lille, facing an opponent rooted to the bottom of the table without a victory this season.

Le Havre remain bottom with two points

Le Havre occupy 18th place in Ligue 1 with two points from five games, scoring four goals and conceding seven. Away from home in the competition, they have recorded one draw and one loss across two matches, drawing 1-1 at Lyon on 29 August 2026 before falling 3-2 at Toulouse on 19 September 2026. Top scorer M. Samatta leads their attack with two goals in all competitions, but the squad travels without Felix Mambimbi, Lionel Mpasi-Nzau, and Stephan Zagadou, who are all sidelined by injury. In their last five matches with chance data, Le Havre have generated 1.38 expected goals per game while allowing 1.59.

Lille hold fourth spot despite chance concession

Lille sit fourth in the standings with 10 points from five fixtures and a goal difference of plus four. At Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, they remain unbeaten with a 2-2 draw against Paris Saint Germain on 28 August 2026 and a 2-0 win over Estac Troyes on 13 September 2026. Their last competitive match ended in a 2-1 defeat at Nice on 20 September 2026, which followed a 3-2 home loss to Real Betis in the UEFA Champions League on 8 September 2026. Ayase Ueda stands as Lille's top scorer with three goals across all competitions. The home side enter without three injured players: Ethan Mbappé, Hamza Igamane, and Tanguy Nianzou. Over their last five games with chance data, Lille created 1.31 expected goals per match while conceding 1.72.

Recent head-to-head records favour Lille

Across their last five meetings, Lille have secured three wins to Le Havre's one, alongside one draw. The most recent clash ended 1-1 on 3 May 2026, after Lille earned a 1-0 away win on 30 November 2025. Le Havre's lone victory in this span came on 8 February 2025 in a 2-1 away win, while Lille registered consecutive 3-0 wins on 28 September 2024 and 17 February 2024.

Our model firmly expects a Lille win

Our forecasting model firmly expects a Lille win. Le Havre have failed to win any of their five league matches this season, managing only two points and conceding seven goals. Although Lille have allowed 1.72 expected goals per game over their recent five-match run and must cope without Ethan Mbappé, their unbeaten home league record and position in fourth reinforce the call.