Ligue 1 Matchweek 6 Results: Monaco Held by Toulouse

Ligue 1 Matchweek 6 produced plenty of action at both ends of the table, highlighted by leaders Monaco stumbling in a 2-2 draw with Toulouse and Stade Brestois running riot in a 5-1 rout of Angers. Across the round, our forecasting model put together an encouraging weekend, correctly projecting seven of the nine match winners while sweeping all nine fixtures in the win or draw category.

How our forecasts did

The split categories showed where the model struggled most. Half-time and full-time projections had the hardest round, with only four of the nine calls landing correctly as early match scripts failed to hold up. Both teams to score also proved tricky, returning five correct calls from nine graded games. Exact scorelines are notoriously difficult to predict, yet two of the nine calls hit their precise target: Lens 2-1 Lyon and Nice 2-1 Strasbourg.

At the top of the board, win or draw calls were flawless, as all nine of the nine projections landed. Match result forecasts performed strongly, hitting seven of nine, with the only errors coming from Monaco's draw and Paris FC's trip to Brittany. The model also found reliable reads on tempo, landing seven of nine calls for total goals and seven of nine for the first team to score.

Results

Friday 9 October

Lens 2-1 Lyon
Lens picked up their second win under Yannick Cahuzac by edging Lyon in the opening match of the weekend. Our model delivered a clean sweep across all seven categories for this match, landing the low-confidence Lens win, both teams finding the net, and the exact 2-1 scoreline after highlighting ongoing chance creation from Florian Thauvin.

Saturday 10 October

Lille 1-0 Le Havre
Lille edged past bottom club Le Havre through a solitary goal, delivering on our high-confidence calls for a Lille win and Lille opening the scoring. Le Havre failed to register, which meant our projection of more than 2.5 goals and both teams scoring fell short.

Stade Brestois 29 5-1 Angers
Brest produced an attacking masterclass to sweep Angers aside, turning underlying chance creation numbers into goals. Our calls for a Brest win, more than 2.5 goals, and both teams to score landed comfortably, even if the 5-1 margin blew past our 2-1 scoreline projection.

Lorient 1-0 Paris FC
Lorient produced an upset by shutting down Paris FC's potent forward line to grind out a single-goal victory. Our projection backed Paris FC to win on the road, missing on the match result and opening goal calls, though our call for fewer than 2.5 goals landed.

Monaco 2-2 Toulouse
Toulouse took advantage of an understrength Monaco side to leave the principality with a point. Our high-confidence call on a Monaco victory missed, but our projections for both teams to score, more than 2.5 total goals, and Monaco scoring first all proved accurate.

Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Le Mans
Paris Saint Germain controlled proceedings against Le Mans, cruising to a comfortable home victory. Our high-confidence forecasts for a PSG win, PSG scoring first, and more than 2.5 total goals landed as expected, with only our call for a Le Mans clean sheet failing to materialise.

Sunday 11 October

Nice 2-1 Strasbourg
Nice claimed all three points in a tight contest against Strasbourg, providing our second exact scoreline hit of the round at 2-1. Projections for a home win, both teams to score, and over 2.5 goals were all graded correct, though Nice did not score first as anticipated.

Rennes 4-1 Auxerre
Rennes overwhelmed an Auxerre side that has now lost four consecutive matches, cruising to an emphatic win. High-confidence calls for a Rennes victory and Rennes scoring first hit cleanly, accompanied by correct forecasts for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals.

Estac Troyes 0-2 Marseille
Marseille took all three points on the road despite missing Højbjerg and Harit alongside the suspended Weah. Our model landed the Marseille win and Marseille opening the scoring, though Troyes failed to contribute to our call for both teams to score.

What we got wrong

The round's most notable miss came at Monaco, where our model issued a firm, high-confidence projection on a home win. Monaco entered the weekend with three straight victories and a strong record on home turf. However, the pre-match analysis noted that Monaco were missing suspended leading scorer Paris Brunner alongside two regular starters. Without Brunner leading the attack, Monaco lacked the finishing edge required to convert possession into three points against a stubborn Toulouse side that took their scoring moments.

The other match result miss came at Lorient. Paris FC arrived sitting third in the table and unbeaten across five games, propelled by sharp finishing from Lassine Sinayoko. The model leaned into those underlying chance creation numbers and backed an away victory. Lorient, despite leaking chances in prior weeks, stayed compact, stifled Paris FC's front line, and showed that road form in Ligue 1 rarely runs strictly to script.

Monaco's dropped points allowed the chasing pack to close the gap at the summit, while Brest's five-goal outburst provided clear separation from the early-season relegation scrap.

Ligue 1 Matchweek 6 Predictions: Lens Host Lyon

Ligue 1 Matchweek 6 features nine fixtures running from 9 October to 11 October 2026, headlined by early table-toppers attempting to consolidate their positions while established sides search for stability. The remaining projections for later fixtures in the round appear on each individual match page the day before kickoff, as numbers are finalized closer to matchday.

The match of the round: Lens vs Lyon

The action begins on Friday as Lens welcome Lyon in an encounter between two sides on contrasting paths through the opening month. Lyon enter the weekend in second place with 11 points and a goal difference of +8, having conceded only twice across five league games. Their recent outings include a comprehensive 4-0 home victory against Rennes and a 2-1 away win at Anderlecht in European competition. Ernest Nuamah leads their scoring charts with four goals in all competitions, spearheading an attack that has produced 10 goals in league play.

Lens sit 15th in the standings with four points from five matches and just one victory so far. The defence has leaked nine goals in five outings, and the squad continues to adapt to new manager Yannick Cahuzac. They also face roster challenges, with Abdallah Sima, Jhoanner Chávez and Maik Nawrocki all sidelined through injury. Most recently, Lens fell 2-1 away at Monaco following a 2-2 draw at Le Mans.

Despite those defensive issues, our model projects a narrow Lens win, though this is a low-confidence call given the contrast in league positions. Lens maintain healthy underlying chance creation numbers, with Florian Thauvin—who has scored four goals this season—consistently supplying quality opportunities. The model projects both teams to score and expects more than 2.5 total goals, leaning towards a speculative exact scoreline of Lens 2-1 Lyon.

Saturday

Lille host Le Havre in Saturday's opening kickoff. Fourth-placed Lille sit on 10 points after a 2-1 defeat at Nice, and are without Hamza Igamane and Tanguy Nianzou. They face a Le Havre team pinned to the bottom of the table in 18th place with two points, having lost 3-2 at Toulouse last time out while missing Felix Mambimbi, Lionel Mpasi-Nzau and Stephan Zagadou.