Brazil vs Japan

Brazil enter the Round of 32 as Group C winners, having conceded just once while their attack generated 2.39 xG per game — a level of chance creation Japan’s well-drilled defence has not yet faced. Japan progressed with five points from Group F, but their underlying numbers (1.33 xG for, 0.42 against in two measured games) suggest they were efficient rather than dominant, and the loss of Raphinha to a hamstring injury removes one of Brazil’s most dangerous transition weapons. The head-to-head record leans heavily towards Brazil — three wins in four meetings, including a 3-2 victory in Japan last October — and the key question is whether Japan’s compact shape can hold out long enough to make this a genuine contest. If Brazil’s ball-carriers find early gaps, the Seleção’s superior individual quality should settle the tie inside 90 minutes.