Mexico vs Ecuador

Mexico arrive at the Azteca as group winners with a perfect nine points and three clean sheets, their defensive organisation conceding a meagre 0.41 xG per game. Ecuador scraped through from Group E but have looked blunt in attack, failing to score in two of their three matches despite generating a higher xG figure that hints at wasteful finishing. Recent head-to-head meetings have been tight, low-scoring affairs, with three of the last five ending goalless – a pattern that should hold in a knockout setting where both sides will be cautious. The key battle is whether Mexico’s patient build-up can unlock an Ecuador defence that has been solid but will face constant pressure from a raucous home crowd. Expect a tense, physical contest decided by a single moment of quality late in the game.