Stoke City vs Middlesbrough

Stoke City host Middlesbrough in the Championship on Tuesday, 13 October 2026, at the bet365 Stadium in Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire, with just two points separating fourth from second in the standings.

Middlesbrough hold the upper hand in recent meetings

Middlesbrough enter Tuesday's match unbeaten across the last four encounters between the clubs. Their recent trips to the bet365 Stadium produced a 2-1 victory on 21 January 2026 and a 3-1 win on 25 February 2025. Following a 2-0 home win in September 2024 and a 0-0 draw in September 2025, Middlesbrough have conceded just two goals across those four fixtures. Stoke City's last win in the matchup was a 5-0 away victory in the League Cup on 27 August 2024.

Stoke balance a winning streak against underlying numbers

Stoke City sit fourth in the Championship with 16 points from nine matches, having won three consecutive league games by 2-1 scorelines against Bolton on 10 October 2026, Sheffield United on 19 September 2026, and Watford on 12 September 2026. However, over their last five matches with chance data, Stoke have created 1.10 expected goals per game while allowing 1.47. Stoke also face selection issues: Maksym Talovierov misses out through suspension, while Aaron Cresswell, Ato Ampah, and Svante Ingelsson are doubtful with injuries. Midfielder Ethan Galbraith leads their scoring charts this season with three goals in all competitions.

Will Lankshear spearheads a productive Middlesbrough attack

Second-placed Middlesbrough have collected 18 points from their opening nine games and scored 17 league goals. Striker Will Lankshear leads their attack with seven goals in all competitions this season. Middlesbrough's underlying data reflects that attacking output, averaging 1.55 expected goals created per game over their last five matches while conceding 1.21. They arrive following a 1-0 win at home against Wolves on 10 October 2026 and a 2-2 draw away at Birmingham on 19 September 2026. The visitors will be without defender Alfie Jones due to injury.

Our model expects a Middlesbrough win

Our model expects a Middlesbrough win, giving the call medium confidence. Middlesbrough's advantage in chance quality, generating 1.55 expected goals to Stoke's 1.10, aligns with their recent record of consecutive league wins at the bet365 Stadium. Stoke's defensive absentees, led by the suspended Maksym Talovierov, further test a backline that has conceded 1.47 expected goals per game despite their recent unbeaten form.