Matchweek 10 in the Championship brought a flood of goals across the country, headlined by West Ham's ruthless 6-0 demolition of Lincoln and Cardiff's 5-1 dismantling of Watford. Across twelve fixtures, our forecasting model enjoyed a solid week on secondary calls like the win or draw and total goals, though it found the outright match result calls harder to call, getting exactly half of them right.
How our forecasts did
The outright match result calls were the roughest area of the board this week, with six of the twelve calls landing and six missing. The exact scoreline category drew a blank, failing on all twelve attempts as several matches blew well past expected score margins. Conversely, the win or draw calls performed best of all, landing ten of twelve. The total goals calls also had a strong round, hitting nine of twelve as scoring picked up across the league. The opening goal calls found success as well, with eight of twelve landing, while both teams to score finished on seven correct calls from twelve. The half-time and full-time calls landed five of twelve.
Results
Bristol City 0-1 Blackburn Bristol City dominated possession and created openings, but Blackburn took three points on the road thanks to a clean sheet, denying our forecast of a home victory and both teams to score, though fewer than 2.5 goals landed.
Burnley 2-2 Charlton Nicky Hayen's side took the lead as our model projected, but Burnley were held to another draw by Charlton, failing our match result call while landing Burnley to win or draw and more than 2.5 goals.
Cardiff 5-1 Watford Despite missing key players through suspension and injury, Cardiff ran riot against Watford. The model correctly forecasted a Cardiff win, more than 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and Cardiff to score first.
Millwall 0-1 Swansea League leaders Swansea maintained their tidy defensive record with a single-goal victory, frustrating our projection of a home win but delivering on our call that the match would produce a winner either way.
Wolves 1-3 Bolton The biggest upset of the midweek round saw Bolton overturn form to strike three times against Wolves, wrecking our firm forecast of a home win while comfortably exceeding the 2.5 goal line.
Wrexham 1-2 West Brom Wrexham took an early lead as projected, but West Brom turned the game around to claim all three points, which landed both teams to score and our projection that the game would avoid a draw.
Birmingham 4-0 Preston Chris Davies's team delivered an emphatic display against bottom-placed Preston, converting dominance into four unanswered goals to land our forecasts for a home win, Birmingham to score first, and over 2.5 goals.
Stoke City 2-3 Middlesbrough Kim Hellberg's side proved their quality in an entertaining contest, edging Stoke in a five-goal thriller that landed our calls for an away win, both teams to score, and over 2.5 goals.
Norwich 0-1 Southampton Without injured top scorer Mohamed Touré and Kenny McLean, Norwich could not find a way through Southampton, who claimed a narrow 1-0 win and upset our call for a home victory.
Portsmouth 3-2 Sheffield Utd Portsmouth validated their strong underlying shot numbers by edging a five-goal battle against Sheffield United, rewarding our forecast of a home win, an opening goal for the hosts, and over 2.5 goals.
QPR 4-1 Derby QPR capitalised on Derby's injury troubles at the back to score four times, rewarding our calls for a home win, over 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and QPR to lead at the break and win.
Lincoln 0-6 West Ham West Ham produced the most one-sided scoreline of the season so far, putting six past Lincoln to comfortably land our match result call and over 2.5 goals.
What we got wrong
The model's most glaring failure of the round came at Wolves, where it placed a firm call on a home victory. Wolves had been productive in attack and held a place in the top six, while Bolton had lost four of their previous five away fixtures. Instead, Bolton punished defensive lapses late in the game to win 3-1, wrecking both the match result call and the win-or-draw projection.
Bristol City was another missed read. The model backed the hosts based on sustained chance creation and expected goals over recent outings, combined with Blackburn's tendency to concede early. Instead, Blackburn kept their composure and sneaked a 1-0 win on the counter, leaving the model wrong on the match result, both teams to score, and the opening scorer.
With West Ham and Swansea continuing their strong form at the summit and clubs like Portsmouth and Cardiff turning underlying numbers into clear wins, the lower half of the Championship table has become tighter, while several early front-runners were given a sharp reminder of the division's unpredictability.
