Burnley vs Charlton: Winless Visitors at Turf Moor
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Burnley face Charlton in the Championship on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at Turf Moor, aiming to build on a 4-0 away victory over Watford while Charlton arrive winless in five matches.
Charlton struggle for goals in five-match run
Charlton sit 12th in the Championship table with 13 points from nine fixtures, but their recent form has slowed. They have failed to win any of their last five matches, drawing 1-1 with Bristol City on 10 October 2026 after a 3-1 defeat at Cardiff, back-to-back 0-0 draws against Portsmouth and QPR, and a 4-0 loss at Stoke City. In that five-game span, Charlton scored only two goals while conceding eight.
Chance creation data underlines those difficulties. Across their last five matches with recorded metrics, Charlton generated an average of 1.02 expected goals per game while allowing 1.54. On the road in league play, they have recorded one win, one draw, and two defeats, scoring four and conceding nine. Leading scorer Karlan Grant holds two goals across all competitions this season, while injuries rule out Collins Sichenje and Nathaniel Chalobah, with Matt Godden doubtful.
Burnley search for first home league victory amid injuries
Burnley enter the fixture in 22nd place with seven points from nine games. Their 4-0 victory at Watford on 10 October 2026 ended a four-match winless stretch that featured a 1-1 draw against Derby, a 3-1 defeat at Swansea, a 1-1 draw at Wrexham, and a 1-2 home loss to Bristol City. At Turf Moor, Burnley have yet to win in the Championship this season, recording three draws and one loss from four matches with five goals scored and six conceded.
Absences could limit Burnley's options. Hannibal Mejbri and Jordan Beyer are confirmed out with injuries. Top scorer Zeki Amdouni, who has three goals in all competitions, is listed as doubtful alongside Ashley Barnes, Bashir Humphreys, Josh Cullen, and Max Alleyne. Despite their lowly league placing, Burnley's underlying numbers show 1.18 expected goals created against 1.31 conceded across their last five matches with data.
Our model expects a Burnley win
Our forecasting model expects a Burnley win with medium confidence. The call reflects Burnley's emphatic four-goal display at Watford and stronger underlying chance creation compared to Charlton, whose attack has delivered just two goals in five matches.
