Australia have built their tournament on defensive organization, securing two clean sheets despite a measly 0.77 xG generated per game. Egypt, meanwhile, have found the net in all three group matches and boast the superior attacking talent in Mohamed Salah and Omar Marmoush. The absence of Hamdi Fathy in midfield could disrupt Egypt's build-up, but their forward line should have enough to breach a stubborn but limited Australian side in a cagey knockout affair. A single moment of quality is likely to settle this, with the Socceroos' blunt attack struggling to respond.
Final ScorelineMEDMedium confidence, rated against other forecasts of the same outcome type0-1Incorrect
Australia have failed to score in two of three group games, while Egypt have scored in every match and face a team with minimal attacking threat. One goal should be enough.
Match ResultMEDMedium confidence, rated against other forecasts of the same outcome typeAway WinIncorrect
Egypt's consistent scoring record contrasts with Australia's reliance on clean sheets; one Egyptian goal could be decisive and Australia rarely look like scoring twice.
Both Teams ScoreMEDMedium confidence, rated against other forecasts of the same outcome typeNoIncorrect
Australia have struggled to create chances, registering an xG below 1.0 per game, and Egypt's one clean sheet would be enough if they dominate possession.
High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →
Match StatsIncludes deeper match tracker data — pressing, ball progression and shot quality — alongside the standard boxscore. Coverage is limited to major competitions, and a specific match can still go unmatched.
Top Stats
0.84xG1.32
42%Possession58%
16 (1)Shots (on target)14 (4)
0Big Chances Created3
Attacking Play
0.07xG on Target1.14
Possession & Passing
507 · 80%Passes (accuracy)723 · 85%
4Corners7
Duels & Pressing
64Duels Won62
30 (53%)Aerial Duels Won27 (47%)
Defending & Discipline
3Saves1
12Fouls14
Shot MapEvery shot of the match, sized by chance quality (xG). Tap one to see where it went. Coverage is limited to major competitions.
Australia
0.84xG
16 shots · 1 on target
Egypt
1.32xG
14 shots · 3 on target
GoalSavedOff TargetBlockedWoodworkDot size = xG
Emam AshourGoal
13' · Egypt
3 / 30
xG
0.17
xGOT
0.74
Body part
Header
Situation
Set piece
Key Moments
MomentumWhich side was on top, minute by minute: territory and pressure, not chances. A side chasing the game will lead it.
Australia45% on top
HT90'
Match Events
13'⚽
E. Ashour
assist: K. Hafez
Egypt
Half Time
46'
K. Trewin
off: J. Bos
Australia
55'OG
M. Hany
Own goal
Egypt
67'
H. Hassan
off: M. Ziko
Egypt
67'
H. Abdelmaguid
off: H. Fathy
Egypt
74'
Player RatingsPerformance rating out of 10 from the match data feed, covering every action a player took. The 5 best-rated from each side are shown; the star marks the highest rated on the pitch.
18
19
3
16
22
13
5
8
20
17
