

Mexico arrive at the Round of 16 with a perfect defensive record — four straight wins and no goals conceded — but their attacking metrics (1.17 xG per game) hint at a side that has not yet faced an opponent of England's calibre. England's 2.11 xG per game, combined with a deep pool of attacking talent, gives them the edge in a matchup likely to be decided by fine margins. The key question is whether Mexico's organised block can frustrate England for 90 minutes, or if a moment of quality from the likes of Kane or Bellingham will break the deadlock. A tactical, low-scoring encounter seems inevitable.
Mexico have conceded zero goals in the tournament, but England's attacking xG of 2.11 per game suggests a narrow away victory via a single breakthrough is plausible, mirroring a classic knockout scoreline.
England's superior attacking output (2.11 xG vs Mexico's 1.17) and individual quality make them favourites to edge a tight contest, even against a side with a perfect defensive record.
Mexico have kept four clean sheets in a row and rely on defensive solidity, while England's 0.69 xG against suggests they can nullify the Mexican attack, making a one-sided clean sheet likely.
High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →
Mexico
1.88xG
20 shots · 5 on target
England
1.61xG
6 shots · 5 on target
Harry KaneGoal
60' · England
Key Moments
Mexico
FWD · 81' · 1 goal · 3 key passes · 2 shots (1 on target)
MID · 103' · 2 key passes
FWD · 103' · 3 key passes
MID · 58' · 1 shot
MID · 24' · 3 key passes · 1 shot (1 on target)
England
MID · 103' · 2 goals · 3 shots (3 on target)
GK · 103' · 1 key pass
FWD · 90' · 1 goal · 1 assist · 1 key pass · 1 shot (1 on target)
MID · 75'
MID · 57' · 1 assist · 1 key pass
Mexico
Coach: Javier Aguirre
England
Coach: Thomas Tuchel
Mexico
No team news reported
England
Suspension Through Sports Court
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | |
| 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 | |
| 3 | 3 | -1 | 3 | |
| 4 | 3 | -4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |
| 4 | 3 | -4 | 0 |