Portugal vs Wales: Jorge Jesus Debuts in Lisbon

PortugalPOR

Joao Felix 22'

UEFA Nations League

1–0

Full Time

HT 1–0

Estádio da Luz

Lisbon

WalesWAL

AI ForecastsGraded

Match of the day · free full analysis

Portugal open their Nations League campaign at a familiar fortress in Lisbon, where a strong prior campaign and squad continuity give them the edge. Wales' only previous meeting with Portugal ended in a 2-0 defeat in the Euro 2016 semi-finals, and with no recent competitive form to draw on, the visitors face a steep test. Portugal's home record has been resilient—two wins and just one loss in their last four—with a midfield that controls possession and limits clear chances. The key will be whether Wales can weather the early pressure; if Portugal score first, the pattern of that 2016 encounter may well repeat.

Match ResultHome Win78%

Portugal earned 2.1 points per game in their last Nations League campaign and have lost just once in their last five outings, whereas Wales arrive without recent competitive fixtures at this level.

Win or DrawHome or Draw93%

Portugal avoided defeat in four of their last five games, and home Nations League defeats have been rare for them.

Total Goals3 or more goals62%

Portugal's last four home matches averaged 2.75 total goals, and the only previous meeting produced two strikes, leaning this encounter towards exceeding the 2.5 threshold.

High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →

Portugal vs Wales: Jorge Jesus Debuts in Lisbon

Published Thu 24 Sept

Portugal meet Wales in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday, 24 September 2026 at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon, where new manager Jorge Jesus takes charge for his first match.

Jorge Jesus includes Cristiano Ronaldo in 25-man squad

Jorge Jesus replaced Roberto Martinez following Portugal's World Cup run, where their campaign concluded in a 0-1 defeat to Spain on 6 July 2026. Forward Cristiano Ronaldo, who has 3 goals this season across all competitions, remains in the selection alongside Manchester United pair Bruno Fernandes and Diogo Dalot, as well as Manchester City defender Rúben Dias. Jesus also included Paris Saint-Germain trio Nuno Mendes, João Neves, and Vitinha for the Group A4 opener.

Craig Bellamy selects Wrexham trio for Wales trip

Wales travel to Lisbon under manager Craig Bellamy to start a run of four group matches in eleven days. Bellamy named Wrexham trio Danny Ward, Nathan Broadhead, and Kieffer Moore in his national team squad for the League A fixture. Following the match at Estádio José Alvalade, the Welsh squad travel to Copenhagen before returning home to face Norway on 1 October.

Portugal created 1.31 expected goals across recent fixtures

In their final five World Cup games leading into the international window, Portugal recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss. The team recorded a 5-0 victory over Uzbekistan on 23 June 2026 and beat Croatia 2-1 on 2 July 2026, alongside a 1-1 draw against Congo DR on 17 June 2026 and a 0-0 draw against Colombia on 27 June 2026. Over those five matches with chance data, Portugal created 1.31 expected goals a game while allowing 1.16 expected goals a game.

Our model firmly expects a Portugal win

Our model firmly expects a Portugal win in Lisbon. High confidence behind the forecast reflects Portugal playing at Estádio José Alvalade with an attack that averaged 1.31 expected goals created across recent competitive outings. While Portugal conceded an average of 1.16 expected goals per match over that five-game span, attacking options including Ronaldo, João Félix, and Rafael Leão give the home side an edge over Bellamy's traveling squad.

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	4	5	12
2	Denmark	4	0	6
3	Wales	4	-3	3
4	Norway	4	-2	3

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